350
FNUS73 KGRR 070930
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Looney 31 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
530 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Rain is likely to hold off until at least 1 PM. Winds will be from
the southeast this morning with mixing gradually improving. The
chance of rain or a thunderstorm increases between 1 and 3 PM.
On and off showers and thunderstorms are then likely through the
evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 15
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the day.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 14 to 23 mph increasing to 18 to 26
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....70 /poor/ at ignition. Max...850 /excellent/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........18     40     69     93     91     87
Weather cov.....                     LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHANCE
Temp............51     60     67     68     63     63
RH..............57     44     42     51     75     78
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 13  SE 15  SE 15  SE 14  SE 13
20 ft wind gust.18     22     24     24     24     22
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1400   2800   3200   1900   1400
Mixing wind.....SE 14  SE 18  SE 24  SE 26  SE 24  SE 21
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Smoke disprsl...70     260    670    840    470    300

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 7 mph toward daybreak. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms through about 2 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 9 to 16 mph shifting to the west 8 to 12
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....160 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    40 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the north
                    around 8 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 10 to 17 mph shifting to the north around
                    14 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....60 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    530 (good) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413286.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joseph.Raspotnik@usda.gov