763
FNUS73 KGRR 062349
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Range 15 Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
749 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Most of Tuesday morning looks dry with rain spreading in around
midday. Rain should move into the prescribed burn around near or
shortly after the noon hour. There will likely be an hour or two
of rain followed by a lull in the afternoon. Another round of
showers and storms looks likely around 500pm to 700pm. Given the
moisture increase and small chances that it could rain through the
afternoon, the burn may need to be completed by the noon hour
given the afternoon rain. Winds will be southeast on Tuesday at 10
to 15 mph to begin the day increasing to 10 to 20 mph by noon and
15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Min 51.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....80 /poor/ at ignition. Min...50 /poor/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
Sky (%).........12     4      4      21     38     49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     61     55     54     53     52
RH..............49     58     64     61     61     66
20 ft wind......E 8    E 7    E 7    E 8    E 8    E 9
20 ft wind gust.13     13     14     16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....700    500    500    500    500    500
Mixing wind.....E 10   E 12   E 13   E 13   E 13   E 13
Haines index....4      4      4      2      2      2
Smoke disprsl...80     50     60     60     60     60

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely through early afternoon. Rain showers
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 15 to 23 mph shifting to the south
                    around 14 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....90 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    480 (good) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through about 2 am.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 7 mph after midnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms through about 2 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 10 to 13 mph shifting to the west after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....30 (poor).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph shifting to the north
                    around 8 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 9 to 16 mph shifting to the north around 8
                    mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....40 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    720 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Duke
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413309.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com