915
FNUS73 KGRR 131402
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Unit 13 Grenada...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1002 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Dry, mild, and breezy conditions are expected through early afternoon.
Shower chances will slowly increase mid-late afternoon with about
40 percent coverage. Best chance for rain for the site comes in after
7-8 pm. SW winds will change to NW just before the widespread rain showers
develop this evening as a cold front moves through.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    in the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the day.
Temperature.........77 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................37 percent at ignition...Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    22 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8000 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1200 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...1600 /excellent/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........37     51     48     58     90     91
Weather cov.....       CHC    CHC    CHC    DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............77     79     81     81     67     63
RH..............46     40     34     36     70     81
20 ft wind......SW 13  SW 13  SW 12  SW 12  SW 10  NW 8
20 ft wind gust.22     22     22     22     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....6000   7000   8000   8000   4000   2000
Mixing wind.....SW 21  SW 21  SW 20  SW 20  SW 10  NW 10
Haines index....4      5      5      5      3      3
Smoke disprsl...1200   1400   1600   1600   400    200

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    through the night.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 95 to 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    this evening then northeast 5 to 7 mph toward daybreak.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 55 to 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....270 (fair).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.


$$
Forecaster...Jeruzal
Requested by...Jeff Vassher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413950.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov