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135
FXUS62 KGSP 102346
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
746 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong storms are possible thru this evening southeast of Interstate
85. Dry high pressure will keep most areas dry through the weekend,
with mild temperatures. An unsettled pattern will take shape late
Monday, with rain chances returning and lasting through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 740 PM...the sfc boundary has pushed thru the area, with
just a stratocu deck across the NC mountains and a few lingering
cu across the Piedmont this evening. Gusty winds behind the front
should diminish around sunset (but lingering gusts expected in the
mountains). The rest of the Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled
for our counties, and PoPs have been updated. Tweaks to the temps
and winds/wind gusts were made with this update.

Otherwise...No great chance of fog overnight as drier air mixes into
the llvls, yet some mtn locales could see spotty dense fog. Upper
heights fall thru the day Sat as an upper wave approaches from the
northwest. This wave will bring it/s own moisture and will likely
instigate a few showers across the NC mtns during the afternoon
into the evening. Lows tonight will drop a little below normal
and highs Sat will also be held a couple degrees below normal as
the new airmass mix begins to modify warmer.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of midday Friday: Confluent upper flow between NE CONUS closed
low, and a ridge in the lower MS Valley, will allow dry sfc high
pressure to build into the CWA beginning Saturday night. This looks
to suppress diurnal convection Sunday. Mild, near-normal temps,
fairly low humidity, and light winds look to make for a nice Mother`s
Day.

Ridge will migrate east and sfc high will set up just off the East
Coast by Monday morning. Southerly flow will develop atop it within
moisture plume on warm side of occluded low moving into the Ozarks;
surface front still looks likely to be well south of the CWA. Models
vary in how quickly they develop precip; some do so Monday and others
Monday night. The setup could foster in-situ CAD once precip
develops. With increased cloud cover temps Monday should be a little
cooler than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Fri: Low pressure will track into the lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday, and PWATs will peak that afternoon or early evening as
southerly moisture flux comes to a head in advance of the low.  Main
shortwave trough likely will be centered over west-middle TN during
the afternoon, but some degree of DPVA could be present to further
enhance lift. How well CAD becomes entrenched may be critical, as by
the same token SBCAPE could creep into our lower Piedmont. GFS
soundings are rather skinny and not indicative of much more impact
than convectively enhanced rainfall rates. Per NAEFS and EPS member
soundings, a few hundred J/kg could overlap with around 40 kt of deep
layer shear, so a strong to severe thunderstorm is not completely out
of the question. That said, leaned slightly toward the low end of
guidance given potential CAD. Tuesday likely will be the coolest day
of the week with highs in the mid-70s, but if CAD does form highs may
stay in the 60s.

Low-level flow will turn westerly and some upslope driven precip is
possible Tue night into Wed near the TN border. The shortwave itself
will cross the CWA Wednesday morning. Temps will rebound above normal
for Wed with skies clearing and downslope winds east of the
mountains. Gradient aloft will be weaker and near-sfc winds more
veered, so less shear will be present but stronger CAPE. As such
scattered t-storms look somewhat more likely but severe threat
probably lesser. Precip chances diminish Wed night as another ridge
moves overhead behind the shortwave. Dry weather will last until the
next low approaches from the west and warm front lifts over the area.
That currently looks likely to occur Thursday night or Friday, but as
a nod to the few solutions depicting it earlier, PoPs tick upward
again Thu afternoon. Thursday temps also will be a little above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front has passed thru the area,
ending precip chances and resulting in mostly clear skies (except
across the NC mountains). Winds have shifted to NW with some
gusts, but should become lighter and lose gustiness around sunset
(except lingering in the valley at KAVL). Quiet weather expected
on Saturday, with dry air likely limiting any fog or stratus
development. Winds will toggle back to SW/WSW around midday at
KCLT and the Upstate sites, while staying NNW with low-end gusts
returning at KAVL. Just fair wx cu expected in the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue thru the weekend. Moisture returns
late Monday with active weather possible by Tuesday.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...ARK