Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 280506
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
106 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will develop along a stalled frontal boundary over
the eastern Carolinas, keeping clouds and intermittent rain
along and east of Interstate 77 through early Thursday then the
front will move to the East Coast. Drier and warmer weather is
expected Friday into the first part of next week.  A cold front is
forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the
week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1253 AM EDT Thursday: No major changes on this update.
Trimmed PoPs based on the latest matched-mean blend from the CAMs,
which is doing a really good job of picking up on trends long the
I-77 corridor.  A few cells have, as anticipated, popped up with
lightning...but it appears from the 00z soundings that the bottom
of the elevated unstable layer is at a whopping 750mb...so it`s
unclear if any cloud-to-ground lightning will manage to develop.
Admittedly, the upper levels should get a little cooler over
the next couple hours, enhancing that instability, but they`ll
be drying out at the same time, and this forecaster just isn`t
convinced we have much to worry about.

Otherwise...broad upper trofing will continue to gradually push a
stubborn upper ridge east of our area and off the Atlantic Coast
overnight and into Thursday. The trof axis is expected to move
over our CWA late Thursday and then lift offshore by the end of the
period, early Friday. In its wake, heights will begin to recover as
broad upper ridging begins to spread back over the region. At the
sfc, a moist coastal low is currently in the process of spinning
up along the extreme Southeast Coast. Over the next several hours,
this low will move up the SE Coast and strengthen moderately. As
Thursday wears on, broad sfc high pressure will overspread our
area from the west and help push the low NE and further off the
coast and bring drier air back to our area. This interaction be-
tween the low and high will cause the pressure gradient to tighten
across the Western Carolinas and winds will become gusty by late
morning. Speeds should remain below Advisory criteria except for
maybe an occasional gust at the highest elevations. In addition,
RH values will likely drop below 25% for most of our non-mtn zones
by mid-afternoon, so Fire Danger Statements could be needed across
our area, especially over NE Georgia. With clearing skies on Thurs,
high temps are expected to approach climatology over much of the
Upstate and NE Georgia, but will likely remain a few degrees below
climo over the NC Piedmont and 1 to 2 categories below climo over
the NC mtns thanks to more robust cold-air advection over the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday: Post-frontal drying continues Thursday
night and under a clear sky, temperatures will fall quickly. The
loss of post-frontal winds will allow the atmosphere to decouple and
give way to good radiative cooling with pockets of frost possible by
daybreak.  Deep layered dry air to result in sunshine for Friday as
downslope aided warming boosts piedmont maximums to around 70. We
are shaping up to be under a deep and warming westerly flow into
Saturday with lower elevation maximum temperatures climbing into the
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday: Low amplitude upper ridging remains in
place to start off the period with warm sector and downslope warming
boosting piedmont max temperatures into the lower 80s for Easter
Sunday.  Token small pop will be maintained for NW NC closer to the
developing ohio valley baroclinic zone.  Upper heights are progged
to rise even further to start off the work week/April atop the SE
CONUS.   Expect a mostly suppressed atmosphere on Monday, with
further warming, a few degrees above persistence.  Just like Sunday,
token later day shower chances will be maintained for NW NC.

During the latter half of the period, energy diving into the central
CONUS will eject eastward, driving a robust cold front into and
through the cwfa.  It is probable that ridging will hang tough into
Tuesday resulting in another warm day in the piedmont with diurnally
enhanced storms firing around the ridge periphery, in the NC mtns.
Latest timing of a early cold fropa next Wednesday may enhance
storms east of the cwfa, we`ll see.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A deck of IFR ceilings is still in place
along the I-77 corridor in association with ongoing showers there.
Thus far, we`ve managed to scrape by without any cloud-to-ground
strikes at KCLT, despite a few in-cloud lightning bolts...and
it should hopefully stay that way, though conditions will need
to be closely monitored the next few hours.  Expect -SHRA to
gradually diminish between now (c. 0500 UTC) and daybreak, before
high pressure works in on Thursday.  IFR ceilings advertised
at both KCLT and KHKY tonight will scatter out as this happens.
The Upstate sites and KAVL will remain VFR through the period,
and all six TAF sites will pick up stout wind gusts embedded in
breeze N/NW flow for much of Thursday.  All sites will go SKC by
Thursday evening...and will remain a little breezy through the
overnight period Thursday night.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the terminal
forecast area thru the weekend as dry high pressure lingers over
the region.  Rain will return by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week,
but the details are murky at this point.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MPR


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