621
FXUS62 KGSP 060549
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
149 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will have a summerlike look to it through
Wednesday, keeping scattered thunderstorm chances around each
afternoon. A strong cold front will approach out of the west on
Thursday before tracking across the western Carolinas on Friday,
leading to better coverage of thunderstorms towards the end of the
workweek. Highs will remain above normal through the workweek but
will climb well above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 140 am EDT Monday: Spotty showers continue across the area
early this morning, warranting slight chance PoPs across much of the
CWA for the next few hours. A shortwave trough and associated
occluding cyclone, with associated remnant warm conveyor
belt/moisture plume, are forecast to move in from the west toward
daybreak. The latest CAMs guidance are coming back around to
allowing associated SHRA...currently approaching the ATL metro area
from the southwest per regional radar imagery...to move into our
western zones circa sunrise. Precip chances therefore ramp up to the
solid chance range across the upper Savannah River Valley by 12Z.
Lows will be around 10 degrees above normal.

Guidance shows the short wave/frontal feature crossing the area
later today, with an increase in PoP through the day. Have continued
this trend in the forecast as well. The increase in shear forecast
seems likely given the stronger winds moving in with the feature,
but the instability increase on some models is more uncertain. This
is due to the development of morning cloud cover limiting heating,
and better overall precip chances. Therefore, while there will be
scattered thunderstorms, the chance of severe storms looks to be
limited unless better instability actually develops. Highs will be a
few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Sunday: Diurnally enhanced deep convection will
have the potential to be maintained well into Monday night as subtle
s/wv energy ripples eastward atop the region. Otherwise a mild night
is expected with Tuesday morning minimums around 10 deg F above the
early May climo.  Lower level warming expected on Tuesday will boost
lower elevation maximums into the middle 80s. As sfc dwpts creep
upward in the lower 60s, weak to moderate instability is fcst.
Thunderstorms have the potential to become numerous in the mountains
and perhaps gusty, within the upper diffluent flow along the
backside of the eastern seaboard subtle ridge axis.  Further warming
is slated for Wednesday with Piedmont upper 80s, again, around 10
deg F above normal.  The pattern will continue to progress toward a
more dynamic look featuring increasingly deep SW flow. Within the
increasingly sheared environment, tstms will have the potential to
produced locally damaging wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday: An eastward progressing cold front is
progged to be moving toward the Tenn Valley to start off the period
before sagging into the cwfa on Thursday.  Along and east of this
boundary, sensible wx will feature numerous showers and strong tstms
within the unstable and moderately sheared environment.  Thanks to
clouds and showers we will be stepping away from the midweek heat
although pretty solid lower 80s are expected acrs lower elevations.
As the frontal zone gets hung up as it becomes parallel to upper
flow on Friday, another piece of energy will rotate through the mean
trough, extending shower chances at least one more day.  A
considerably drier post frontal airmass should settle atop the SE
CONUS on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Spotty showers continue across the Terminal
Forecast Area early this morning. Chances for a direct hit on any
TAF site are remote through about daybreak. After that, increasing
moisture from the west will bring increasing shower chances...with
perhaps a TS or two, mainly to the upstate SC terminals. Low cigs
and visby restrictions should develop across much of the area toward
daybreak...although confidence in timing and magnitude of these
restrictions is below average. Expect IFR cigs at most sites...with
perhaps brief LIFR conditions. Cigs should improve through the
daylight hours, with VFR conditions expected by early afternoon.
Convection is again expected to initiate across the mountains around
mid-afternoon. Stronger steering currents today should result in
convection dropping E/SE into the foothills and Piedmont during the
late afternoon and evening. Additional round(s) of convection could
move into the area from the northwest into the evening and early
part of the overnight hours.

Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled
front through the middle of the week, resulting in a period of
active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also
be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog
and/or low clouds each morning. A cold front moves in for later
in the work week with continued chances of diurnal convection.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL