970
FXPQ50 PGUM 021920
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
520 AM ChST Fri May 3 2024

.Overnight Update...

.Marianas...
The weather and marine forecasts remain unchanged. Gentle to moderate
trades will continue to bring isolated showers through at least the
first half of next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Trade-wind convergence has decreased overnight, especially near
Chuuk and Pohnpei, and overall convection across the region has
become more fragmented. The main area of convection is found within
trade-wind convergence across the southern Marshalls and alongside a
trough approaching Kosrae. No major changes to the public and marine
forecasts at this time as the overall trade-wind pattern is not
expected to change much through the middle of next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
Scatterometer and satellite data show that the Near-Equatorial
Trough (NET) is still south of the main islands of Palau and Yap,
extending westward from near EQ148E and exiting the region near
3N130E. Overnight, numerous showers near Palau had fallen apart, but
satellite trends show that showers are starting to build back into
Palau early this morning. A poorly-organized disturbance is embedded
in the NET and is roughly focused near 1N143E. Overall, the forecast
remains unchanged. The NET and the embedded disturbance will continue
to be monitored over the next several days for signs of further
development.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 559 PM ChST Thu May 2 2024/

Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers across the Marianas. Altimetry data is indicating seas of 4
to 5 feet.

Discussion...
Skies have cleared out and showers diminished as the remnant surface
trough has cleared the Marianas. Drier trade-wind pattern expected
for the period. May see a slight uptick in showers and clouds as a
couple of trade troughs pass through, with the first being tomorrow
into tomorrow evening and the second being on Sunday, but kept shower
coverage isolated.

Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to continue through the
beginning of next week. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet expected until a
couple of northerly swells enter the region. The first arrives
sometime around Sunday, while the second, larger one arrives sometime
around Tuesday, with seas rising to 5 to 7 feet.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing
reefs for the next several days, with a low risk expected along all
other reefs. The northerly swell is expected to increase by around
Sunday, with surf likely rising along north and west facing reefs.

Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Latest scatterometer and satellite data shows convergent trade-wind
flow across most of the region with embedded troughs moving through
the flow. Chuuk Lagoon has been fairly dry today as it is currently
west of the convergent flow and troughs, and is expected to remain
dry tonight, before the trough currently near Pohnpei pushes into the
state Friday. Pohnpei and Majuro are currently on the northern edge
of the band of showers that extend from just south of Pohnpei,
through Kosrae, and onward to the Date Line, passing south of Majuro.
This will allow for showers to become isolated at both Pohnpei and
Majuro tonight, before scattered showers move back into Pohnpei
Friday and Friday night for Majuro. The northern islands of the RMI
and islands north of 7N, remain fairly dry and are expected to remain
dry through the weekend. The overall trade-wind pattern is not
expected to change much through the middle of next week, keeping most
of the showers south of 8N, with showers expected from Chuuk to
Majuro.

Over the ocean, winds are expected to be from the northeast to east
and mostly moderate, becoming fresh at times. Combined seas, as
reported by altimetry and the buoy near Majuro, are around 4 to 7
feet. Through the middle of next week, not expecting any major
changes in wind or sea conditions.

Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
Scatterometer and satellite data shows the Near-Equatorial Trough
(NET) is still south of the main islands of Palau and Yap, extending
westward from near the equator near 147E and exiting the region near
3N130. Convergence north of the NET is producing scattered to
numerous showers across Palau this evening, passing just south of Yap
Proper, where showers are still fairly isolated. The very weak
circulation that was embedded within the NET yesterday is currently
no longer indistinguishable from the NET this evening in both
satellite imagery and scatterometer data. A broad trough can also be
seen near the border of Yap and Chuuk State, and slowly drifting
westward.

The convergence zone north of the NET will bring numerous showers,
with the potential of some occasional gusts up to 30 mph in the
heavier showers to Palau tonight, while Yap Proper and will stay
just north of most of these showers. The convergence zone is
expected to weaken this weekend, allowing showers to decrease down to
isolated this weekend, before increasing again early next week as
the trough currently in eastern Yap state arrives at Palau. Scattered
showers are expected across most of Yap State near and south of 8N,
but Yap Proper and the nearby islands of Ulithi and Fais are
currently just north of most of the convective activity and models
keep most of the showers just south of these locations through the
middle of next week. Looking toward the latter half of next week,
models show a broad, but weak circulation developing within the NET.
Models keep this feature weak, but it will help to keep the
potential for showers elevated at Palau and possibly Yap late next
week.

Besides the potential of some gusty and seas choppy near heavier
showers and thunderstorms at Palau tonight, winds are expected to be
fairly moderate and from the northeast to east. Combined seas are
expected to be around 4 to 6 feet through early next week. Models are
showing some north swell entering the region around midweek, but
this swell is currently expected to be 4 feet or less, causing
little change in overall sea heights, but may see some elevated north
surf for a couple of days.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila/Slagle
Micronesia: Cruz/Schank