995
FXPQ50 PGUM 030743
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
543 PM ChST Fri May 3 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers across the Marianas. Altimetry data is indicating seas of 3
to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Drier trade-wind pattern expected for the period. May see a slight
uptick in showers and clouds as a couple of trade troughs pass
through, with the first being late tonight into early Saturday and
the second being late Saturday night into Sunday, but kept shower
coverage isolated. May begin to see an increase in moisture and
clouds being pulled north out of Micronesia late next week.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to continue through the
weekend into next week. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet are expected,
until northerly swells enter the region. The first arrives by Sunday,
while the second, larger one arrives by Tuesday, with seas rising
around 2 to 3 feet.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing
reefs for the next several days, with a low risk expected along all
other reefs. The northerly swell will increase surf along west, north
and east facing reefs and may also result in a increase in rip
current risk, especially along north facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Trade-convergence across the region remains fragmented, with showers
primarily developing along troughs moving across the region and the
weak convergence trailing behind the troughs. One trough is passing
near Weno in Chuuk Lagoon, bringing scattered showers to Chuuk
tonight. This trough will continue to drift westward, allowing
showers to decrease at Chuuk Saturday afternoon and remain isolated
through Saturday night. Another trough is located near Kosrae and is
producing scattered showers at Kosrae, while slowly moving towards
Pohnpei. This trough is expected to reach Pohnpei late tonight,
increasing showers at Pohnpei from isolated to scattered. The weak
convergence east of Kosrae and passing south of Majuro is expected to
strengthen over the next few days, moving across Kosrae and Pohnpei,
and then into Chuuk around Sunday, promoting scattered to at times
numerous showers through most of next week. Thunderstorms are
expected to remain fairly isolated over the next few day due to the
lack of strong divergent flow aloft. Majuro is north of the trade
convergence, so showers are fairly isolated, while upper-level
clouds generated by convection to the south is keeping skies mostly
cloudy over Majuro. Majuro is expected to remain dry through Saturday
night, before trade-wind convergence lifts northward Sunday,
increasing the potential for showers at Majuro late this weekend and
into next week. The northern islands of the RMI, such as Wotje, and
islands north of 7N remain fairly dry and are expected to remain dry
through the weekend. As the convergent trade-flow starts to lift
north early next week, some of these islands may start to see some
scattered showers, although this is not expected to occur until at
least the middle of next week.

Over the ocean, winds are expected to be from the northeast to east
and mostly moderate. Combined seas, as reported by altimetry and the
buoy near Majuro, are around 4 to 7 feet. Through the middle of next
week, not expecting any major changes in wind or sea conditions.

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
Scatterometer and satellite data show that the Near-Equatorial
Trough (NET) is still south of the main islands of Palau and Yap,
extending westward from near EQ148E and exiting the region near
3N130E. Latest scatterometer suggests a poorly-organized disturbance
or buffer circulation is embedded in the NET near 1N134E. Showers
have shifted south of the main islands of Palau, so showers at both
Palau and Yap are now isolated. Showers are expected to remain south
of Palau through at least Sunday night and through Tuesday for Yap
Proper and nearby islands as the NET and any passing trade-wind
troughs are expected to remain near and south of 5N. This pattern
starts to change next week as models show the NET lifting northward,
as broad circulation tries to develop within the NET. This will
increase the potential for showers at Palau Monday and at Yap by
Tuesday night. As usual, the GFS becomes the most aggressive as it
shows the circulation trying to develop as it pushes northwest into
the Philippine Sea, while the ECMWF shows the circulation eventually
dissipating and being reabsorbed back into the NET. What both of
these models support is the potential for showers over Palau, and to
a lesser extent at Yap, late next week.

Winds over the ocean are expected to be fairly moderate and from the
northeast to east over the next several days. Combined seas are
expected to be around 4 to 6 feet through early next week, and this
matches well with current heights reported by the buoys near Palau
and Yap. Models are showing some north swell entering the region
around midweek, but this swell is currently expected to be 4 feet or
less, causing little change in overall sea heights, but may see some
elevated north surf around the middle of next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Schank