Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
000
FXPQ50 PGUM 110821
AFDGUM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
621 PM ChST Thu Apr 11 2024
.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite loops indicate scattered clouds and isolated light showers
across the local region. Winds and sea conditions are moderate to
fresh but there has been occasional strong gusts to 26 kt. Winds will
tapper off a bit this evening and fair weather will prevail.
&&
.Discussion...
Fair weather is expected through the weekend at least. Models do
indicate a few showers could arrive at times, typically during the
overnight hours. The atmospheric humidity will be a little more moist
during the next few days, so good beach weather.
&&
.Marine...
Moderate to fresh trade winds and combined seas of 5 to 8 feet are
expected the next few days. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
along west, north and east facing reefs.
&&
.Fire weather...
The Red Flag Warning has expired, while a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect through Saturday afternoon. The KBDI is at 676 today; and
that`s in the Very High fire danger category. Spotty showers are
expected the next few of days, especially in the southern mountains.
Relative humidities may drop below 60 percent and winds will be more
gusty during the afternoon hours.
&&
.Eastern Micronesia...
Convective coverage has once again expanded today, across the region,
especially south of 8N. Still, even northern portions of the RMI
(Republic of the Marshall Islands) are seeing some brief showers.
While none of this will be a "drought buster", it helps. The good
news is the numerical analysis continues to show a steady increase in
rainfall potential as we head through the weekend and into next
week, which is great to see visible satellite imagery confirms a
good convergence zone extends well beyond the Date Line between the
Equator and 7N. This area looks to lift or expand northward a couple
of degrees the next several days as well. This would cause decreased
rainfall potential at Kosrae early next week, while maintaining at
least scattered coverage for Pohnpei and Majuro.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area, with
seas holding steady in the 5 to 7 foot range.
&&
.Western Micronesia...
Chuuk State has been pretty cloudy today with periods of showers.
Portions of central and eastern Yap State have also seen some hit-
and-miss showers, especially between 5N and 8N. Although this won`t
be enough to fill the reservoirs, we`ll take what we can get right
now. An area of convection is located well south of Koror/east of
central and southern portions of the ROP (Republic of Palau), but it
may not make much westward progress as it rotates around a Near-
Equatorial Trough (NET), that intersects a weak/disorganized
circulation near 1N139E.
The good news is convection across and south of Chuuk State is
forecast to slowly drift westward over the next few days. It may make
it to Palau and Yap eventually, but most of Yap State should see
increasing rainfall potential through early next week.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the forecast period,
with waves generally in the 5 to 7 foot range, but the northeastern
portions of Chuuk`s waters may briefly see them top out near 8 feet
tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Fire Weather Watch through Saturday afternoon for GUZ001.
MP...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ003.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon
for PMZ151>154.
&&
$$
Marianas: Simpson
Micronesia: Doll