Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
592 FXPQ50 PGUM 270723 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 523 PM ChST Sat Apr 27 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite shows partly cloudy skies with spotty light showers across the Marianas. Moderate to fresh trade winds with occasionally strong gusts prevail over the region. Altimetry shows seas between 4 and 6 feet west of the waters and between 4 and 7 feet east. && .Discussion... No major changes were made to the forecast. A dry trade-wind pattern will persist for the next several days with only spotty showers expected. Latest model guidance shows very little rainfall across the Marianas, with the GFS showing slightly above one half inch and the ECMWF showing less than one half inch over the next 10 days. && .Marine... Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected to slowly subside overnight, becoming gentle to moderate Sunday morning. Winds will remain at this level through the coming week. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet look to slowly subside over the next couple of day as well, reaching 4 to 6 feet Monday evening. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... The pattern remains roughly the same from the previous discussion. A surge in trade winds will continue to shift westward across central and eastern Micronesia. Trade-wind convergence has led to deep convection across central and eastern Micronesia south of 6N. Guidance hints towards renewed convection throughout the week as the trade-wind convergence shifts westward and a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) builds into eastern Micronesia. The trade surge will continue to bring fresh to near-gale gusts through Sunday morning for Pohnpei and Sunday afternoon for Chuuk. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for frequent gusts up 30 kt and combined seas of 7 to 10 feet. The small craft advisory was allowed to expire for Kosrae with winds and seas coming down some, but a high surf advisory remains until Sunday morning. ASCAT data shows seas in the 5 to 7 foot range near Majuro. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau... Satellite imagery shows isolated showers across Yap and Palau. The 00z ECMWF for 06z today appears to be spreading convection westward too quickly with deeper convection remaining further east towards Chuuk. Decided to keep Palau isolated overnight with an increase towards scattered for Sunday in line with the GFS. Little change in thought from the previous discussion towards midweek with precipitation chances increasing for Palau as a NET forms. Moderate to fresh winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet should persist through the middle of next week before a slight decrease in seas will be possible towards the end of next week. Winds also look to become gentle to moderate towards the middle of the coming week as well. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte Micronesia: Williams