000
FXPQ50 PGUM 120822
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
622 PM ChST Fri Apr 12 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite images indicate scattered to broken low-level clouds and
just isolated light showers over the local region. Surface winds are
mostly 10 to 20 mph from the east. Combined seas are 5 to 8 feet;
from the east and a small north component.

&&

.Discussion...
Fair weather should prevail through this weekend at least. Models do
indicate a few showers could arrive at times, typically during the
overnight hours. Relative humidities have become a little higher and
the air more humid, so heat index values will range from 95 to near
100 during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate to fresh trade winds and combined seas of 5 to 8 feet are
expected the next few days. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
along west, north and east facing reefs.


&&

.Fire weather...
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect thru Saturday afternoon. The
KBDI is at 681 today; in the Very High fire danger category. Spotty
showers are expected the next few of days, especially in the southern
mountains. Relative humidities may drop below 60 percent and winds
will be more gusty during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia including Chuuk...
Summary of advisories: The High Surf Advisory for Kosrae was
extended through late tonight.

The main weather feature affecting the region continues to be a
surge of northeast trades, converging into weaker flow in eastern
Micronesia. The weather pattern transitions into a broad, poorly-
organized disturbance with an elongated center south of Chuuk and
eastern Yap State. Overall, this setup is causing scattered to
numerous showers across Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae, and south of Majuro.
Model guidance shows this band of enhanced convergence shifts north
over Majuro and develops a bit more over Kosrae overnight. Models do
display this as a somewhat quick transition, shifting as far north
as Wotje, possibly Utirik by Saturday night or Sunday, however, the
rainfall accumulations and coverage starts to trend down by then.
Chuuk and Pohnpei look to stay in the general area of convergence
following the disturbance as it attempts to reorganize in far western
Micronesia.

Scatterometer data shows winds of 10 to 20 kt around the Marshall
Islands and 10 to 15 kt across Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae.
Altimetry indicates seas are 6 to 8 feet. A long-period northeast
swell generated by a distant storm near Hawaii pushes into eastern
Micronesia early next week, adding to seas and more notably, surf
heights. Hazardous marine and surf are not expected at this time,
however, this is something worth monitoring over the next few days,
especially for Kosrae due to their lower criteria.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Very little has changed for Palau and Yap as satellite still shows
minimal shower activity near and upstream of the islands. Models
show a disturbance in central Micronesia attempting to reorganize,
centering itself southeast of Palau, closer to the equator over the
weekend. This, and the near-equatorial trough it is embedded in,
could move within range this upcoming week and bring some showers to
Palau, and to a lesser extent, Yap.

Benign marine conditions are expected over the next several days,
comprised of 5 to 7 foot seas and moderate tradewinds.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Fire Weather Watch through Saturday afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Simpson
Micronesia: Cruz