000
FXPQ50 PGUM 152013
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
613 AM ChST Tue Apr 16 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Seas continue to hold in the 6 to 7 foot range, slightly lower near
the western coastlines. Winds are under 15 mph, with an estimated
water temperature of 82 to 84 degrees based on satellite data.

&&

.Discussion...
The forecast remains in excellent shape with no major changes made.
In general, a relatively light trade-wind pattern will continue
through early next week. Any showers look to be very brief and light
the next couple of days, with maybe a slight increase in intensity
towards the latter half of the week as moisture depth improves ever
so slightly. Still, even if this occurs, it won`t amount to much in
terms of duration.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 5 to 8 feet will continue the next 48 hours, before
decreasing a foot or so. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail this
week, with a moderate risk of rip currents along our northern and
eastern-facing reefs.

&&

.Fire weather...
With only a trace of rainfall observed yesterday, the KDBI has
increased back into the EXTREME range, sitting at 701 this morning.
Luckily, light winds will help contain any wildfire that develops, to
some extent. However, with such dry fuels, please keep an eye on any
flames associated with barbecues or spark-related activities. A Fire
Weather Watch appears unlikely at this time, given the lighter
winds, but this could change towards the weekend depending on how
things play out.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A long-period northeast swell continues to push through the region
and towards Chuuk, but is starting to decrease around the Marshall
islands. Latest altimetry and buoy data around Majuro shows seas
have decreased to around 8 feet and surf has likely dropped below 12
feet along north and east facing reefs, so the High Surf Advisory and
Small Craft Advisory was allowed to end this morning. Seas across
the region remain around a 6 to 8 foot range, but the long-period of
the northeast swell will keep surf around 9 feet at Kosrae through
Tuesday night, while surf at Pohnpei may peak at 12 feet today before
dropping below 10 feet Wednesday afternoon, so the High Surf
Advisories for these islands remain in effect. The long-period swell
is not expected to reach Chuuk until later today, but when it does
surf is expected to build up to 9 feet along north facing reefs, so
the a High Surf Advisory goes into effect from this afternoon to
Wednesday afternoon.

Trade convergence across the region is fairly week, with a band of
spotty to scattered showers still persisting near Chuuk, Pohnpei,
and north of Kosrae and Majuro. For most of the week, the trade
convergence will fluctuate in intensity and position, especially
later in the week when models show the trade-winds increasing north
of the region as the sub-tropical ridge pushes south, strengthening
the convergence zone and pushing southward. Chuuk and Pohnpei will
see a better potential for showers being closer to the enhanced
convergence for the next couple of days, while Kosrae and Majuro are
just south of the main convection and in turn has lower shower
potentials through Wednesday. As stated earlier, a more unsettled
weather pattern is expected late this week and this weekend as a
convergence zone rebuilds across the region and then links up with a
favorable upper-level divergence pattern.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The weak circulation well south of Palau continues to slowly drift
with the near-equatorial trough (NET) and towards the southern
Philippines. Convergence is still being enhanced along the northern
periphery of this disturbance. Expect numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms for Palau today, while Yap proper will see isolated
showers this morning, with scattered showers pushing northward into
Yap proper this afternoon. Satellite trends and model guidance
continue to suggest scattered showers remain close to Yap over the
next few days, but struggle to have much northward expansion, with
isolated showers expected at Yap tonight through Friday. For Palau,
the convergence north of the NET will slowly pull way to the south
causing numerous showers to decrease and become scattered starting
tonight. Even though the NET will continue to pull away from Palau,
models continue to supported scattered showers around Palau as the
convergence band in eastern Micronesia is expected to rebuild and
push to the region as well, helping to keep scattered showers in
Palau`s forecast through the weekend.

Benign marine conditions are expected over the next several days,
comprised of 4 to 5 foot seas and gentle to moderate trade winds.
Long-period northeast swell is expected to add to surf heights along
north and east reefs by Wednesday night for Yap, and by Thursday for
Palau. Surf is expected to approach, but not exceed hazardous levels
for north-facing reefs.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Doll
Micronesia: Schank