Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 211836 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 236 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide offshore to the south of New England this evening. A moisture starved cold front will drop south from Quebec and stall nearby tonight. This front will return north as a warm front on Tuesday, spreading showers into the area. Another cold front drops south through the region Wednesday. Weak low pressure tracks along the international border late Thursday into Friday. A frontal system tracks into the area for the holiday weekend bringing widespread showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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At 18z a 1025 millibar high was draped across the lower Great Lakes. A weak cold front extended from the rooftop of Maine through the Saint Lawrence Valley. GOES visible imagery showed a band of broken mid cloud with the cold front otherwise skies were clear across the forecast area. The weak boundary will drop south across the area tonight and stall. GOES water vapor shows an impulse over the northern plains. This impulse and an associated surface low will race eastward with clouds arriving from west to east across the area during the morning hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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On Tuesday...the impulse and surface low will cross the region and push the boundary northward as a warm front into southern sections of the forecast area. A mostly cloudy day with showers developing from west to east by afternoon. It`ll be cooler than today with highs in the 60s to around 70. Showers taper from west to east Tuesday night as the impulse and surface low slide offshore with patchy fog developing. QPF from this system will average from 0.10 to 0.20 inches.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There will be a gradual clearing on Wednesday. However an upper level trough will linger to the west which may allow for some destabilization and the threat of an afternoon or evening shower or possibly a thunderstorm. A ridge of high pressure over the region early Thursday will give way to the approach of a warm front. H8 temperatures in the +10C to +12C in southern Canada will advect eastward. This will allow for much milder conditions by Friday as Maine and New Hampshire will be in the warm sector along with scattered showers in the northern mountains. This front will become relatively stationary over the region Saturday. Temperatures will lower from the 80s to the 70s in most sections except for southwest New Hampshire. Expect more shower activity by Sunday as the front settle south to the southern New England coastline. 12Z model suite in relatively good agreement with the front slipping south of our region.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...Gusty westerly winds will diminish by early evening. VFR through tonight. Areas of MVFR developing aft 16z tomorrow in shra. LCL IFR aft 03z Wed in fog. Long Term... Generally VFR conditions with a few scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening. More showers with lowering ceilings Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Westerly flow could briefly approach small craft in gusts through early evening as a weak boundary drops south across the waters. Long Term...Seas will gradually build to near SCA thresholds in the proximity of a warm front Friday into Saturday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Good relative humidity recovery expected tonight with moderate to high relative humidity tomorrow and tomorrow night in showers.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schwibs SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Cannon

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