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003
FXUS61 KGYX 012310
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
710 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly cloudy and raw with an onshore flow tonight. Shower
chances return for Thursday. Cloudy skies and onshore winds will
favor high temperatures running below normal through the rest
of the week. High pressure builds in from the north Friday for
mostly fair weather into Saturday. Chances for showers increase
Sunday and Sunday night before drier air arrives on Monday. Warmer
temperatures are looking likely for the first part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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7 PM Update...Have updated the forecast for mainly adjustments
to cloud cover as a good portion of the western ME mountains
southward to northern Kennebec County ME have cleared out. This
is also true for portions of southwest NH. Have made those
adjustments for clear(er) skies for at least a few hours.

Previously...

Low clouds continue to persist across much of the area this
afternoon with some clearing of skies across northeastern zones.
These clouds are forecast lift briefly through this evening
while much of the area remains mostly cloudy. Weak surface high
offshore will maintain light onshore flow tonight with clouds
expected to lower overnight with patchy fog.

The next short wave to traverse a mid level ridge over the
eastern US will approach the forecast area from the NW tonight.
This system will bring increasing chances for showers after
midnight across NW zones with showers spreading SE into much of
Maine Thursday morning. Lows tonight will generally be in the
40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching short wave and surface reflection will track NW
to SE along the NH/ME border during the day Thursday. This
system will maintain cloudy and cool conditions across much of
Maine with periods of showers throughout the day. On the SW side
of this system there will be breaks of sunshine, less chances
for showers, and much warmer temperatures. There looks to be a
very sharp gradient in temperatures across the area withs highs
only near 50 degrees across Maine while portions of SW NH climb
into the upper 60s to low 70s. CAMs have been suggesting that
there will be some instability that develops within the small
warm sector of the system and have included the mention of
isolated thunder across portions of central NH tomorrow
afternoon. Total QPF for this system will be on the order of
0.25 to 0.5 inches across Maine with higher amounts in the
mountains. QPF drops off across southwestern NH with portions of
Cheshire County possibly missing out from measurable rainfall.

The compact surface low will push offshore tomorrow evening
bringing an end to the showers. High pressure will start to
build in from the north Thursday night while skies look to
remain mostly cloudy. Lows will range from the upper 30s to low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stubborn moving area of high pressure will be nearly
stationary over the Canadian Maritimes. This blocking pattern
will continue to bring a raw and chilly fetch of northeasterly
winds to the forecast area. Dry conditions will persist on
Friday under partly to mostly cloudy conditions which is
supported by the latest HREF solution. Temperatures will reach
the 50s along the coast to the lower to mid 60s inland which is
actually an improvement.

Similar conditions will continue on Saturday with a light east
to northeast flow coming in off the Gulf of Maine. Due to the
cold ocean water temperatures, highs will be limited to the 50s
along the coast with the chilliest day for highs along the
Midcoast region.

By Sunday, a warm front will finally approach from the west.
Warm air advection and increased moisture will allow for
scattered showers to cross the region. The greatest chance for
precipitation will be during the afternoon hours and continue
into the night.

Models suggest any leftover light showers will retreat to the
north on Monday, leaving just some early morning cloudiness
across the region. Partial clearing will take place as the low
level moisture becomes scoured in a westerly flow. The
increasing sunshine will allow for afternoon highs in the 60s,
however some inland areas may reach the lower 70s.

Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue on Tuesday
before low pressure brings a bout of rain to the region by
Wednesday as an active and fast flow sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Cigs are currently fluctuating between MVFR/IFR
thresholds with the expectation that cigs lift briefly through
this evening. Conditions then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR tonight as
cigs lower with fog and showers developing towards Thursday
morning. Low clouds and showers persist through Thursday mainly
impacting KHIE to KPSM and TAF sites in Maine with MVFR to IFR
conditions. Farther to the west there will be lower chances for
showers and breaks in the cloud cover with KMHT, KCON, KLEB
likely seeing MVFR to VFR conditions. A drying trend Thursday
night may allow for improving conditions across Maine TAF sites.

Long Term...VFR is the prevailing condition through Saturday,
with the next chance for restrictions being on Sunday as
ceilings lower and rain showers cross the area. Lowered ceilings
continue early Monday morning, otherwise VFR conditions will be
developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Thursday night. Low pressure tracking NW to SE across
the waters Thursday will bring increasing SE flow Thursday
morning followed by NE flow Thursday evening with showers.

Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected. A generally light east to southeasterly flow can be
expected for much of the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon
AVIATION...
MARINE...