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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 211545
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1145 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly dry with breezy westerly winds. A cold
front crosses tonight with little precipitation followed by a
dry and blustery day Monday. High pressure slides south of the
area Tuesday for warmer and dry conditions. Low pressure
approaches the region Wednesday bringing the next chance for
widespread rain. High pressure then builds in towards the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
11:45am Update... Increased clouds for the afternoon as a weak
cold front approaches. Otherwise no notable changes with this
update as the forecast remains on track.

625 AM Update...Only minor tweaks to T/Tds to capture the latest
observed trends. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the
going forecast for today.

Previously...

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to persist today, although the
forecast area will remain mostly dry. Surface heating will lead
to clouds developing late morning and persisting through the
afternoon with breezy westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph. Highs
will range from the mid 40s north to mid 50s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the NW tonight and will cross into
northern zones around midnight and clearing the coast Monday
morning. This front will have limited moisture to work with only
some snow showers expected for mountains while areas downstream
remain mostly dry. This front will usher in a cooler and drier
airmass allowing lows to drop into the 20s across the north
while areas along the coastal plain drop into the 30s.

Northwest winds will be gusty behind the front Monday and with
a dry airmass moving in there will be some fire weather
concerns. Winds will gust 25 to 30 mph with min RH dropping to
around 20 percent. It will be cooler with highs in the upper 30s
north to low 50s south with the higher elevations remaining
below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected Monday night and Tuesday, with gusty
southwesterly return flow on Tuesday. Winds slacken Monday night
and blended MOS with NBM for lows Monday night.

Tuesday won`t get to it`s full potential temperature- wise,
especially on the coastal plain as winds will be onshore during
the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 50s across Maine
and into the 60s across NH away from the coast.

A good portion of the deterministic and ensemble suite show a
wetting rain event centered around Wednesday. However, there
remains considerable disagreement on amplification of the
system, so QPF amounts and rainfall duration are quite uncertain
at this time. There could even be some mountain snows with this
one.

Thereafter, fair but cool weather returns late week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will likely prevail across the area today
through Monday with west winds gusting to 20 kts during the day
today and NW winds gusting to 25 kts during the day Monday.
MVFR cigs will impact KHIE at times through this morning and
again tonight into Monday morning.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals Monday night through Tuesday. Restrictions are likely
on Wednesday as showers and lower ceilings return, with MVFR to
IFR conditions likely. Improvement is likely on Thursday, but a
return to VFR may take until Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Westerly winds will increase today with gusts
generally to around 20 kts with few gusts approaching 25 kts
along the outer waters. A cold front crosses tonight through
Monday morning shifting winds out of the NW with gusts around 25
kts bringing SCA conditions to the outer waters. Seas stay below
5 feet through the period.

Long Term...High pressure builds in Monday night with it moving
offshore on Tuesday. The high moves east of the waters by
Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west, with SCA
conditions likely in southwesterly then south flow Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Ekster