Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171425 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of weakening low pressure will persist over the region today and will shift east on Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night and will move east through the region on Thursday. This will likely bring a round of rain and snow. Low pressure will shift east into the maritimes Friday, followed by high pressure building in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Update...Upper trof axis is over the forecast area today...and making very slow progress Ewd. To the E of the trof axis...onshore flow and lift will support far more numerous showers than to the W. That will be mainly from the Lakes Region Nwd...where I have increased PoP thru this afternoon. Cooling temps aloft from SW to NE will also support some more convective/instability type shower activity mainly across Srn NH this afternoon. Previous discussion...Rain pulling out of the forecast area with showers developing in its wake back to the west and that will be the fare for the day as upper trough swings in from the west. High temperatures will generally top out in the mid to upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... looking for mostly cloudy skies tonight and Wednesday with rain and snow showers gradually becoming confined to northern zones. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s and highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The main focus in the extended will be the sensible weather associated with low pressure developing off the New England coast Thursday and Thursday night. Have lowered high temperatures on Thursday significantly as cold temps aloft and falling precipitation should allow SFC temps to stay unseasonably cold. The question then becomes whether or not the precipitation falls heavy enough to allow for accumulating snow. We think this will be the case at higher elevations such as the White Mountains where several inches of wet snow are possible if not likely. At lower elevations, the key will be precipitation intensity. At this time we have forecasted a mix of snow and rain, but we will have to pay close attention to trends in forcing for ascent, as heavier precipitation may result in a period of accumulating snow on colder surfaces even on the coastal plain. The 00z deterministic ECMWF is beginning to trend in that direction, but we will have to wait and see if that holds. Thereafter - Friday onward though the weekend - high pressure builds in providing for fair weather. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby improving to VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings. Long Term...Flight restrictions likely in RA and SN Thu into Fri morning. VFR conditions are likely Friday midday through the weekend. && .MARINE...
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Short Term...SCA in effect outside the bays mainly for seas today...but 25 kt gusts are expected to pick up again tonight into Wed morning. Long Term...There is a possibility of SCA late Thu into Fri as low pressure passes to the southeast of the waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Suncook River at North Chichester remains above flood stage and is forecast to crest later today. Flooding is forecast through Wed. Otherwise area rivers are near crest or starting to fall.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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