Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 171425
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of weakening low pressure will persist over the
region today and will shift east on Wednesday. Another area of
low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night and
will move east through the region on Thursday. This will likely
bring a round of rain and snow. Low pressure will shift east
into the maritimes Friday, followed by high pressure building in
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Upper trof axis is over the forecast area today...and
making very slow progress Ewd. To the E of the trof
axis...onshore flow and lift will support far more numerous
showers than to the W. That will be mainly from the Lakes Region
Nwd...where I have increased PoP thru this afternoon. Cooling
temps aloft from SW to NE will also support some more
convective/instability type shower activity mainly across Srn NH
this afternoon.

Previous discussion...Rain pulling out of the forecast area
with showers developing in its wake back to the west and that
will be the fare for the day as upper trough swings in from the
west. High temperatures will generally top out in the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
looking for mostly cloudy skies tonight and Wednesday with rain
and snow showers gradually becoming confined to northern zones.
Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s and
highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main focus in the extended will be the sensible weather
associated with low pressure developing off the New England
coast Thursday and Thursday night. Have lowered high
temperatures on Thursday significantly as cold temps aloft and
falling precipitation should allow SFC temps to stay
unseasonably cold. The question then becomes whether or not the
precipitation falls heavy enough to allow for accumulating snow.
We think this will be the case at higher elevations such as the
White Mountains where several inches of wet snow are possible
if not likely. At lower elevations, the key will be
precipitation intensity. At this time we have forecasted a mix
of snow and rain, but we will have to pay close attention to
trends in forcing for ascent, as heavier precipitation may
result in a period of accumulating snow on colder surfaces even
on the coastal plain. The 00z deterministic ECMWF is beginning
to trend in that direction, but we will have to wait and see if
that holds. Thereafter - Friday onward though the weekend - high
pressure builds in providing for fair weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby improving to VFR with
areas of MVFR ceilings.

Long Term...Flight restrictions likely in RA and SN Thu into
Fri morning. VFR conditions are likely Friday midday through the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA in effect outside the bays mainly for seas
today...but 25 kt gusts are expected to pick up again tonight
into Wed morning.

Long Term...There is a possibility of SCA late Thu into Fri as
low pressure passes to the southeast of the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Suncook River at North Chichester remains above flood stage and
is forecast to crest later today. Flooding is forecast through
Wed. Otherwise area rivers are near crest or starting to fall.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro



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