000
FXUS61 KGYX 141616
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1216 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, and eventually showers, gradually work in from west to
east across the region this afternoon, although, they may not
get into ME until this evening. This fast moving system will
clear the area by Monday morning.  High pressure gradually
builds in early next week with partly to mostly sunny skies
outside of the mountains along with a warming trend. Cooler
conditions with mainly rain expected late next week as low
pressure develops to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...Just a few tweaks to take the forecast into the
afternoon, mainly to be a little more optimistic with sky over
the early part of the afternoon, and shift back POP chances by
an hour or so, given the current satellite and radar trends.

1040 AM...Updated a few things, mainly for the midday early
afternoon hours. I pushed back the arrival of OVC skies a bit.
The cirrus that`s passing through S NH now looks more
transparent, with the thicker clouds moving in more closer to
early afternoon there, and not until later afternoon as you move
east. POPS were adjusted as well and used a blend of meso models
and CAMs for POPS, with chc POPS early this afternoon across NH,
but dry air mass will tend to erode what showers do develop at
first, but they become more prevalent in NH by mid afternoon,
and across the ME zones by late afternoon or early evening.

7:40am Update... Mostly focused on tweaking the showers for
today with this update. Overall nudged the timing slightly
earlier, and increased POPs as the shield looks pretty solid
this morning. Otherwise, no notable updates.

Previous...

After a mix of sun and clouds through the first half of today,
a quick moving area of low pressure approaches and brings
another round of showers late this afternoon and into this
evening. Temps warm into the 50s to near 60 ahead of this system
through the early afternoon. Then clouds quickly spread in
during the afternoon, with the showers starting within a couple
hours after the clouds arrival. This drops temps back into the
40s as temps wet bulb in the rain, making for a raw late
afternoon and evening.

The most widespread coverage of these showers will be across
western New Hampshire, with a gradual lessening of intensity,
but not only a minimal decrease in coverage eastward toward the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Showers continue through the evening, and gradually end from
west to east within a couple hours of midnight. Rainfall amounts
look to remain light, but some spots across western New
Hampshire and the higher terrain are likely to pick up to half
an inch of rain, with amounts dropping off to near a tenth of an
inch or less near the coast.

Skies clear out through the overnight hours outside of the
mountains, with some patchy valley fog likely to develop
overnight following the rain. Clouds linger through the
mountains, with a few showers again in the mountains by tomorrow
morning as a weak trough swings through. By the afternoon
hours, pop up showers are likely to reach outside of the
mountains, but gradually decrease in coverage toward the
coastline.

Temperatures warm into the 50s to low 60s tomorrow downwind of
the mountains, but likely then level off or begin to fall by
early to mid afternoon as the cloud cover and showers increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very little change to the going forecast for the Tue-Wed time
frame where we expect it to be fair and mostly dry. Some
mountain showers remain possible Monday night.

The next system for late in the week continues to be very
complex in the mid and upper levels. The trend in the latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been for slightly
stronger ridging nearby which means a slower arrival of any
steady rainfall and perhaps less rainfall overall through late
in the week. Have slowed up PoP timing and Kept Wed night and
most of Thursday dry. Higher PoPs remain Friday but uncertainty
still exists. Overall, temperatures remain near to a bit above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR to near MVFR ceilings linger at HIE through
early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings lower to MVFR to
IFR with showers late this afternoon and evening, and then
return to VFR after midnight and toward daybreak. VFR prevail
at most terminals tomorrow, but a few showers are possible at
times. Periods of MVFR ceilings are likely at HIE tomorrow
afternoon.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Tuesday through Thursday with relatively
light winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue across the outer waters
into tomorrow afternoon, at which point seas likely fall to or
just below 5ft. A weak area of low pressure crosses the waters
late this afternoon and evening. A trough lingers across the
Canadian Maritimes through tomorrow, bringing continued westerly
flow across the waters.

Long Term...SCA conditions may linger Monday evening but then
subside. SCA conditions are not expected Tue-Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any light rainfall this afternoon and tonight should not have
any sort of significant effect on river flows as they continue
to recede.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...