Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171030 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 630 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold weather will continue through the weekend. A cold front will move across the region today with scattered snow showers. A very cold night is on tap for tonight in the wake of the front. Low pressure is expected to develop off the mid atlantic coast midweek and then pass well south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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625 AM...pushed back clouds and pops associated with the front by about 2 hours early this AM, as the forecast had them coming in a bit early. Also tweaked temps just a bit this morning, although nothing to impact temps through the day today. Still watching the potential for a snow squall or two mid morning into early afternoon, mainly across NH and SW ME. Previously...Cold front will cross the region this morning, and some backing winds aloft are taking a toll on the upslope SHSN in the mtns, and will do so for a few hours before the front arrives. The front will cross the region between about 13-19Z. Some models show very little in the way of SHSN associated with the front, while others show a corridor of SHSN forming S and W of a line from KPWM-KIZG-KPWM and then up through nrn NH. Actually BTV WRF Snow squall parameters show some farily high values especially in the srn part of this region around midday. The question is if the the SHSN associated with the front develop enough in the mtns and foothills of NH, to survive a fairly decent downslope. Will have to watch this during the early to mid morning, and address with statements if they do develop. Could see some gusty winds and localized vsby sown to 1/2 mile or less, along with a quick half inch to an inch of snow in some spots. Otherwise, look for a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies around midday, with clearing skies behind the front mid-late afternoon. Highs will be reached just ahead of the front, generally around 20 in the N to around 30 in the S. Could see a little surge of upslope in the mtns right behind the front, but the air coming in behind is so dry, it will shut off fairly quickly, and definitely by evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The CAA will be going in full force late today into this evening,before winds begin die off, and lows will generally be in the single digits in most places, ranging from near zero in the N, to around 10 in the S. Sunday looks like we`ll see a lot of sun, but will be stuck in the cold air with highs generally running 20-30 again. Will still see some gusty winds, but as not as bad as Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad upper trof will remain over the maritimes Sun night through midweek providing a cold northwest flow with temps well below normal. The air mass will remain dry through midweek. The system that bears watching will be an upper low currently over the southern Rockies that will move through the southern plains early in the week and then move off the mid atlantic coast midweek. Latest model runs seem to be coming more in-line with a solution that keeps this southern stream system separate from phasing with the northern stream. This will allow the system to pass well south of New England to have much, if any, affect across the area. Latest blended model guidance reflects this scenario with low POPs which was accepted. With this in mind expect cold, below normal temps and generally dry weather through the latter part of the week as well. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR through Sunday. Will have to watch for the possibility of a brief snow squall around midday, which would bring vis down to LIFR or lower. best chance will be across NH and SW ME /KPWM/. Less chance at KRKD and KAUG. NW winds will gust to around 25-30 kts today, especially this afternoon. Long Term...VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA will hold as is, into this evening, as cold from will cross the waters this afternoon, and gusts to 30 kts will be common into the evening. Long Term...No flags expected through midweek. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Marine AVIATION... MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.