000
FXUS61 KGYX 231956
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
356 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the region on Wednesday bringing rain
showers and perhaps a few flakes to the mountains. Dry high
pressure then moves across the region Thursday through Saturday.
A warming trend can be expected over the weekend with chance of
showers Saturday night or Sunday. Warmer weather expected early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies continue into the evening behind an excellent
spring day. Onshore winds have driven some moisture into the
coastal communities mainly north of Portland, but not very far
inland. Strong, deep mixing across the interior and mountains
did a really good job at washing out any low level moisture that
tried to impede. This resulted in widespread RH values in the
teens and 20s for much of NH (largely unaffected by coastal
moisture) and 20s and 30s for southern Maine. These values will
rebound tonight as surface inversion develops and moisture
advects from the west.

Clouds increase after midnight with lows falling to the mid 30s
to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure traveling amid a passing cold front will
bring showers to the area Wednesday morning. These are expected
to be most concentrated towards the mountains and US/CAN border,
but there will be showers across much of the area through Wed
morning. QPF is generally light, with little amplification of
the low. Much of the steady precip exits by the afternoon, with
perhaps some flakes falling briefly for the mountains and far
interior locations.

Gusts pick up behind the front, potentially exceeding 30 mph at
times before deeper mixing dwindles in the evening. Don`t expect
the surface to entirely decouple, and overnight lows will mainly
be a reflection of cold air advection. This dips most locations
well below normal...into the mid 20s, with some teens possible
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB pattern across NOAM remains moderate amplified and blocky
through the weekend at least, but after the upcoming surge of
cold air through the mid-late week, see signs of the coldest
receding into the Arctic, and a warming tend this weekend into
early next week. Honest the Euro tends to hold the central ridge
of an omega block over the E CONUS from this weekend into next
weekend. There is some potential for the trough on the W of the
block to shift far enough to produce some showers later in the
weekend.

However for Thu-Fri, we should see sf high pressure settle over
New England, with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Highs Thu
will still be cool, generally around 50 in the mtns and in the
mid to upper 50s in the S, but they should start to warm up a
bit on Friday, reaching into the mid to upper 50s across much of
the CWA and lower 60s in srn NH.

WAA from that upper lvl low to our W starts to move in on
Saturday, and will at least see an increase in clouds, and
perhaps some showers by Sat night. Highs will mostly be in the
^0s on Sat. Sunday could see more SHRA but warm front should
move through and allow highs to be a few degrees warmer still,
although with a fair amount of clouds. Expect Monday to be
warmer still, with at least partly sunny skies, but also the
threat of showers as we spend some time in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight, with sct MVFR ceilings working in
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Brief IFR cannot be ruled out.
A cold front passes with SHRA, and potentially some light SN
for northern NH and western ME terminals. Winds shift quickly NW
Wed afternoon, becoming gusty around 30 kt. Improvement to VFR
is expected by the evening, but some MVFR may hold on towards
the US/CAN border before midnight.

Long Term...VFR is expected Thu-Sat, with dry air in place. Even
valley fog will struggle to form give that we are pre-green up,
along with the dry air mass. The next threat of flight
restrictions looks to be Sat night into Sunday as warm front
moves through with some showers possible

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds remain SSE tonight, becoming S and then NW
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front passes over the waters.
Winds may approach gale force Wednesday night behind the front,
warranting at least SCA conditions overnight. Wave heights also
respond, 4 to 6 ft.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria Thu into Sat,
with SCA winds possible Sat night into Sunday as a warm front
crosses the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Cempa