Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 181915 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 315 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift east tonight as a warm front approaches from the south. The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday through Saturday night and will be followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night and will pass out to sea south of New England Monday. Weak low pressure will pass south of New England on Tuesday. A cold front will drop south through the region Tuesday night. High pressure High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday and will shift offshore on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will gradually shift east overnight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling with a hard freeze expected in the mountains and foothills. Freeze warnings have been posted for the foothills of Maine. Farther south and west have issued Frost warnings for mid coast and southern interior sections of Maine as well as adjacent areas of central New Hampshire. Southern New Hampshire may see some isolated pockets of frost but increasing clouds will keep this area warmer and not looking for anything too widespread. Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s north and lower to mid 30s in Southern Maine and central New Hampshire. Southern New Hampshire should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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A warm front will approach from the south on Saturday bringing increasing clouds to the region with rain moving into southwest zones during the late morning and early afternoon. Rain will continue to spread north and east through Saturday evening. A cool onshore flow will generally hold temperatures in the 50s through the day. Rain will continue Saturday night...gradually tapering to showers after midnight as the warm front pushes northeast of the region. Temperatures will show little change overnight with readings from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models continue to keep New England on the equatorward edge of large closed 500 MB circulation meandering around near Baffin Bay. This will keep us in a somewhat changeable pattern through the long-term forecast, with some warmer temps at times and some cooler temps at others, but nothing extreme for late May. Sunday will se cold front cross the region during the day, and some showers, with a chance of TSRA, are expected ahead of the front. Could be stuck in marine layer near the coast during the morning, with low clouds hanging around until the moves through, and any showers should be limited to a couple hours ahead of the front, so it won`t be a washout, with at least partly sunny skies develop across most of the area during the afternoon. Highs should reach to the mid-upper 60s in the north to 70-75 inland coastal areas, and maybe a bit warmer in southern NH. Skies should clear out Sunday night, with some rad cooling in the sheltered spots, but may be too much boundary lyr flow for a really good rad cooling night, but low ins the mtns could drop into the upper 30s, with most places in the 40s to low 50s. For now, Monday is shaping up to be the finest day in the long term, as sfc high crosses the CWA. Look for mainly sunny skies and highs the mid- upper 70s, but closer to 70 in the mountains and at the beaches. The next system will be approaching from the west Monday night into Tuesday, with a weak wave passing to the north, and another to the south. 12Z Euro does not phase these systems, and therefore does not produce much in the way of precip. For now chc pops for showers look good centered around Tuesday. Fro the rest of next week, several waves moving around threat big low to out NNE graze the area, and I have put chance pops across the nrn zones to cover the threat for showers, while keeping srn areas limited to slt chc at best. Will have to watch for potential cooling from back door front should any of the waves get some extra energy, bit overall, other than the showers in the north, look for partly cloudy skies with temps look to running close to normal which is generally in the mid 60s to low 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR tonight. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing on Saturday and persisting through Saturday night. Long Term...Sunday could start with some IFR conditions in low clouds, especially at the coast, but should clearing to VFR in the afternoon. Sct tSRA are possible on Sunday as well. Otherwise expect mainly VFR Sunday night thru Wed, with some possible tempo restrictions in SHRA on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Small craft advisories likely for the outer waters Saturday night. Long Term...SCA winds possible in SW flow ahead of cold front Sunday, but should see conds fall below SCA Sunday night, and stay there thru Wednesday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Rain moves into the region Saturday and will persist into Sunday. No fire weather problems area expected through the weekend.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ018>022-025>028. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ012>014. NH...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ003>006. MARINE...None.
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&& $$

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