796
FXUS61 KGYX 062348
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
748 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area this tonight, bringing a
tranquil evening and Tuesday along with warm daytime
temperatures. Widespread showers move in by the end of the day
on Wednesday with some thunder possible across western NH
Wednesday evening. Another system follows for the end of the
week, bringing more showers into the forecast. The unsettled,
showery pattern may continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7:45pm Update... Tweaked temps and POPS for this evening based
on trends and latest high res guidance. A few brief showers
remains possible near the Canadian border, but otherwise a
mainly dry night is expected. Overall to major changes, with the
forecast remaining on track at this time.

Previous...

A weak frontal boundary continues to approach the area this
afternoon, and out ahead of it temperatures have warmed up into
the 60s and 70s across the area. Even though the atmosphere
has dried out since this morning, these warm temperatures have
provided a small amount of instability, which should be enough
for a few showers to develop out ahead of the front into early
this evening. One favored region is southern NH into southwest
ME, which still has dewpoints in the 50s, and the better
moisture can be seen in the with slight growth to the cumulus
field on latest satellite. The next area is into northern
Franklin and central Somerset counties, where higher moisture is
seen just upstream into Quebec along with showers on the CASSF
radar. Most activity will diminish by sunset or shortly after
with dry conditions overnight. One other thing to contend with is
that models are hinting at fog development near the coast this
evening into portions of tonight, which is certainly possible as
the surface trough will be located in this region. Otherwise, a
push of drier air will work in from the north, resulting in
decreasing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will be a warm and dry day with mostly sunny skies with
high pressure in control across the area. Good mixing supports
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area, with mid
70s in southern NH. It will also be breezy at times with wind
gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, which might be enough to prevent the
seabreeze, or at least keep it pinned close to the immediate
coast.

Tuesday evening and the early part of Tuesday night start out mostly
clear, but the column will gradually moisten overnight from west to
east in response to low pressure moving across the Great Lakes and
approaching New England. This will lead to increasing cloud cover,
especially across NH, where light rain may start falling toward
daybreak Wednesday. However, forecast soundings show lingering low-
level dry air, so I have delayed and lowered PoPs slightly from the
previous forecast for the Tuesday night period. Temperatures will be
mostly in the mid 40s to around 50, but far northern and eastern
areas may be able to reach the upper 30s where clouds move in
later.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rather steady upper-level jet streak situated along an axis
from here to Colorado, and an upper-level low over the central
US could bring a pattern conducive to the continual development
of surface lows over the Midwest. These surface lows could then
quickly move into New England, bringing continually rainy
weather through most of the week/weekend after Wednesday. Cooler
than average weather is expected through the start of next
week.

Wednesday should be a pretty cloudy day, as a low arrives from the
west. Widespread showers are expected with the passage of the low,
and a few rumbles of thunder might be heard as well.

Gloomy and showery weather continue as more surface lows move across
the region through the end of the week, with this pattern
potentially continuing well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Coastal sites may see brief fog restrictions late
this evening and tonight, but confidence remains low. Otherwise
a drier airmass works in behind the front through tonight,
which is expected to bring mostly VFR conditions through Tuesday
and Tuesday night. However, ceilings will start to lower
through the the course of Tuesday night as low pressure
approaches. The NH terminals could start seeing light rain in
the 09Z to 12Z time window.

Long Term...
VFR with light winds is expected Wednesday morning.
Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
evening, with the greatest chance of thunder expected over southern
and western New Hampshire, including KLEB. CIGs are expected to go
in and out of MVFR starting Wednesday night due to and continuing
into the weekend due to repeated bouts of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels through Tuesday
night. A weak front crosses the waters later this afternoon and
evening and will switch winds over to northerly tonight. Winds
become S/SW Tuesday afternoon as center of high pressure sets up
just south of the waters. By Tuesday night, a low pressure
system crosses the Great Lakes, and winds across the waters will
become more easterly.

Long Term...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA criteria until Friday
morning, when northeasterly winds pick up to 25 kts. Wave heights
increase Friday morning as well and SCA seas and winds could
continue into the weekend as well.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...Combs/Palmer
MARINE...Combs/Palmer