Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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275 FXUS61 KGYX 260920 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 520 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks north through western Maine today with another round of showers possible this afternoon. This system will slowly exit the region late Thursday allowing clearing Thursday night into early Friday. Another area of low pressure will move into the region late Fri and Friday night. Some instability showers are possibly mainly in the afternoon and evening Saturday. A cold front with cooler drier air arrives on Sunday. A warming trend is expected to begin early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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530AM UPDATE... Another batch of steadier rain is moving in from Cape Cod, likely affecting far eastern New Hampshire and most of western Maine for the next few hours. Have updated the forecast to try to show this in the hourly precipitation chances a bit better. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Area of steady rain has moved east into central and eastern Maine, while behind it only a few isolated showers exist. Expect the steady rain to continue to slowly push east this morning, while fog develops in the wake of it. Fog should dissipate after sunrise, hanging on longest across interior western Maine. Surface low pressure lifts north through the area today while upper level low pressure tracks east out of the Great Lakes and into northern New England. As the upper low arrives, expect areas of showers to develop. With cold air moving in aloft and warm/moist air at ground level, cannot rule out a thunderstorm this afternoon. Given cold temperatures aloft, small hail is possible with any heftier showers or thunderstorms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... Upper low moves east tonight with some clearing expected. Temperatures fall back into the low 40s with some upper 30s possible, buoyed in part by remnant low level moisture. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... *Continued shower activity through the weekend will contribute to rises on area rivers and streams *Significant warm up expected early next week Low pressure associated with a northern stream short wave will be ejecting northeast late Thursday night into the wee hours Friday morning. Subsidence behind this system will allow for some clearing skies early Friday before additional moisture arrives ahead of the next weather maker. This system will be ushered in on a southern stream wave along the mid Atlantic coast line, similar to out current storm system. Widespread showers are forecast for our entire area over the weekend. Coastal low pressure will likely stay just offshore until crossing the Gulf of Maine and into Maine Saturday morning. Sprawling high pressure over the Plains and western Great Lakes region will interfere with farther movement inland. An additional mesolow deepens over the eastern Great Lakes and will follow suit, bringing with it a trailing cold front. QPF amounts will be in the 1-2" range for the Friday to Sunday time frame, delivering another good soaking rain and adding to already high running creeks and streams. We may see some snow mix in over the mountains Sunday night as cooler air arrives behind the multiple FROPAs, but accumulations will be light. During this time temperatures will be below normal for highs due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight lows will be chilly, especially Monday morning, which will see some freezing temperatures over western NH and northern ME. Ironically, our frost/freeze program for crops does not start until May 1, so take care to cover any sensitive plants. Monday through mid week we will see some very warm readings with highs in the 70s areawide with perhaps an 80 degree location or two. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Steadier rain moves into central and eastern Maine this morning, while some fog develops behind it. This fog should lift a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions developing from southwest to northeast. But just as the sun begins to come out, clouds will fill back in and showers form this afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm either. Long Term...VFR early Friday with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR late Friday into Saturday in rain showers. VFR conditions return for all terminals except perhaps KHIE Sunday. Gusty NW winds will develop in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds gradually diminishing this morning, shifting to the west by afternoon. Seas remain high through the day and possibly into Friday. Long Term...Seas over the outer waters will remain AOA 5 feet Friday into Saturday so SCAs for seas will likely be needed. On Sunday winds become westerly and should remain generally below SCA conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Steadier rain has ended and rises on area rivers have been noted. With the more persistent rain having exited New Hampshire and most rivers there already cresting below flood stage, have decided to drop the Flood Watch for northern New Hampshire. Rivers in northwest Maine are rising or nearing their crest, so will keep the Flood Watch up for these areas. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-021. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Kimble SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Hanes

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