Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 191044 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 644 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures will linger through at least mid week as winter holds on. One or more low pressure systems are expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and currently look to pass far enough south of our region at this time to avoid a major snow event. Another area of low pressure will well to the south of New England next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 635 am Update: Clear skies continue across the region. Had to lower some early morning temps for next few hours based on latest obs data. Previous Discussion: A broad cyclonic and cold northwest flow will continue today. Conditions will remain very dry with mostly sunny skies but with temps well below normal. Some gusty winds can once again be expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Canadian high pres gradually settles over the area tonight so winds will be light but continued very cold temps. Overnight radiational cooling will once again allow for a very cold night. During the day Tuesday sunny skies expected once again as surface high pres becomes centered over the region. On Tue temps will moderate some but will still be below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A complex area of low pressure will move south and east of New England by Wednesday. Models trying to come into agreement that there will be two pieces of energy that will consolidate into one intensifying system east of Cape Cod by Wednesday night. Latest 00Z model suite does show the potential for some light snow to reach the coastline Wednesday night during the closest passage of the offshore system. However this remains a very low confidence forecast. The upper level pattern will remain somewhat disorganized as well during this midweek period. Several weak short waves will likely enter the large scale upper level low. Models are having difficulty with the timing of how this all unfolds. A second upper level cutoff low will remain just north of the Saint Lawrence River Valley as well. This additional complicating factor will make for a challenging forecast over the next day or two. With an upper trough over the forecast area late in the week and over the weekend, expect a few scattered snow showers. The greatest chance will be up in the mountains where upslope conditions are expected. Below normal temperatures will continue with highs only in the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s for the rest of the work week. By next weekend, the pattern appears it may repeat itself with low pressure intensifying over the Mid Atlantic Region before moving out to sea. An upper level trough may bring some scattered snow showers to the region along with a continuation of below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday/...VFR. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions with ceilings and perhaps visibilities lowering in light snow along the coast Wednesday night into early Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term/Through Tuesday/...Gusty northwest flow will continue over the outer waters today and into tonight so extended the SCA for the outer waters until midnight. Long Term...Winds may approach gale force with low pressure passing by to our south and east during the midweek period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged northeasterly fetch Wednesday into Thursday will build seas and storm surge values. Currently it appears possible that a 1 to 2 foot surge will occur around the times of high tide Wed night...mainly from York County ME to the Seacoast of NH. With astronomical tides increasing, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Portland, Hampton and perhaps Fort Point approaches or exceeds their flood stages Wednesday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>152- 154. && $$ JC/RAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.