Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 200228 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1028 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes to our southeast this evening bringing a chance for showers across coastal ME. Things are looking up however as high pressure finally builds into New England over the weekend into early next week. After that the next chance of precipitation occurs next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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1030PM UPDATE... Still seeing wave after wave rotating around within the upper low over our region, so there will be the occasional threat of a rain/snow shower through the night, though not nearly as numerous as today. 615PM UPDATE... Little wave of light precipitation is rotating through the coastal plain of Maine at this hour. Have structured PoPs the next few hours to focus on this, while more isolated showers are possible in the western mountains through the rest of the night. Should see less showers overnight. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Upper level low showing up quite clearly on water vapor imagery. The initial push of cold air is currently over New York State with a secondary maxima over Georgian Bay which will move in tomorrow. Overnight expect will move east across the region overnight. Some diurnally driven showers over New York is expected to decrease in coverage after sunset as the low moves overhead but a few showers will likely continue overnight, especially in the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow the upper level low moves over with northwesterly advection in its wake. With the time of year and strong sun angle temperatures will still manage to climb to near 50 along the coast. While this is warmer than the past few days its still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Friday night the northwesterly flow continues with a few snow showers lingering in the mountains. While the winds will gradually decrease some continuing flow is expected throughout the night keeping temperatures a bit warmer. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The good news for this third week of April is that we are expecting warming temperatures and sunshine as well as an absence of precipitation, at least for the end of the weekend and the first part of next week. The bad news is that this weather won`t last...with convective showers likely by Wednesday. Skies begin to clear out Saturday, lingering the longest in the higher mountain passes. Highs in the 40s and 50s over the weekend will give way to lower to mid 50s north to upper 50s/lower 60s south and central for the beginning of the work week. Continued rising heights will result in highs in the 60s Tuesday. At the same time, clouds will begin to creep back in as moisture increases on southerly flow. This warm advection regime will be energized by a ~50 kt LLJ, which will help to spread the moisture over New England. As far as timing, Tuesday looks less wet as long term deterministic runs continue to slow down this multi-barrelled system. Next Wednesday and beyond look wetter, and this system may give us at least a couple days of slow moving, soaking rains. This will knock down highs below normal once again. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... Upper level low moves through the area overnight and into tomorrow with scattered showers. This will result in periods of MVFR, especially in the mountains. Long Term... Saturday...Sct MVFR conditions possible before 12Z in mountain -SHSN. Sunday through Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail with clearing skies and light northerly flow. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions are possible later tonight into Friday as northwesterly winds kick in behind departing low pressure, however the confidence is fairly low so no headlines have been issued with this package. Long Term... Sat...SCAs are possible...especially outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Hanes

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