Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 170843
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

This next round of widespread showers/thunderstorms appear to right
on our western doorsteps as the MCS begins moving in from South Cen-
tral TX. Not much else to add from the previous discussions concern-
ing the potential for heavy rain/flooding with this activity, and to
an extent, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. And so
SE TX does remain in both Slight to Marginal Risks (levels 1/2 of 4)
for excessive rain as well as a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the
possibility of severe weather.

This MCS should move east/northeast across the CWA through morning
hours, likely out of the area by this afternoon. However, we could
see some scattered re-development late this afternoon/evening with
the passage of yet another embedded disturbance in the flow aloft.
Models appear to keep the bulk of this next round of storms closer
to the coast and over the coastal waters.

By tonight, building surface high pressure from the Central Plains
will push cooler/drier air into the area...and we should be seeing
the end of POPs as skies begin to clear. Overnight lows will be in
the 50s tonight. With mostly clear skies and light N/NE winds, the
highs on Mon will be in the 60s with lows mainly in the 40s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The period of relatively calm and pleasant weather continues in
earnest on Tuesday, with Monday`s gusty winds diminishing as a
broad area of surface high pressure moves into the South Central
CONUS. With dry air remaining in place (surface dew points in the
30s) and highs reaching the mid 60s, there won`t be much to
complain about aside from the potential need for a light jacket in
the evening as lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most
of the area.

As the surface high shifts to the east as we head into Wednesday
and reintroduces an onshore flow regime to the region, a steady
increase in both temperatures and near-surface moisture can be
expected. Meanwhile, a fairly potent midlevel low situated over
the Four Corners region on Wednesday will continue to push
eastward, eventually contributing to our next chance at widespread
rainfall on Thursday. Wednesday`s highs, aided by weaker but
steady WAA, will eclipse the 70 mark for many locations with dew
points nearing 60 in the evening and overnight lows just above 60.
Additional moisture transport will drive surface dew points into
the mid 60s on Thursday.

Back to the aforementioned upper low- the GFS and EC still show
two different scenarios regarding how this scenario will unfold.
While the recent EC runs now match the previously more progressive
GFS regarding the timing of the system, the GFS continues to
depict a more robust feature that induces a coastal low just
offshore, bringing widespread and potentially heavy rain to SE TX
on Thursday afternoon. The EC solution shows a similar pattern but
with a less cohesive coastal low and thus less QPF for the area.
As such, still a bit early to talk specifics but for now Thursday
needs to be monitored for the potential for some heavier rainfall.

With the exit of the coastal low, a weak E/NE surface flow pattern
will result in fairly consistent conditions through the weekend
with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the 50s to near 60.
Rainfall potential through Sunday will be limited by a lack of
available forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Continuing to watch radar/satellite for early SHRA/TSRA development
before main system to our southwest heads into the area overnight.
Overnight, still expecting lower ceilings (mostly IFR but possible mix
of IFR/MVFR) along with increasing SHRA/TSRA coverage. Still have SHRA/VCTS
starting around 08Z/09Z with best chance of TSRA 10Z-14Z. Not seeing
the best run-to-run timing consistency in the models, so forecaster
confidence is still not that good. There`s a chance the area could see
some lingering SHRA/TSRA activity after the first batch of early morning
storms moves on through, so continue to carry VCSH thru 18/00Z. As for
ceilings, improving to MVFR for the afternoon, but again some lower
IFR ceilings could linger around. Think any lingering RA/SHRA will come
to an end around or shortly after 18/00Z, and we could end up dealing
with a lower cloud deck during parts of the overnight hours (Sunday
night) before drier air clears everything out on Monday. For winds,
generally went light NE to E this evening and overnight (around 5 knots
or less) with mainly N to NE during the day tomorrow (closer to 10 knots).

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Widespread showers and storms continue to move into the area this
morning, and remain possible through early Sunday as a cold front
slowly advances towards the coast. Some storms may produce hail,
strong wind gusts, and isolated waterspouts this morning and
afternoon before activity begins to dissipate later in the
evening. As the front clears the coast on Sunday, strong north
winds will develop with wind speeds reaching 20 to 30 knots with
higher gusts. This will almost certainly require a Small Craft
Advisory. Wind speeds remain elevated on Monday before diminishing
on Monday night and shifting to the east. Onshore winds return
late on Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the next potential for
widespread rain on Thursday as the next storm system develops.

Cady

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for today (3/16)
and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  53  64  41 /  80  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  56  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  59  67  53 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady


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