Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KHGX 270006
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
For the most part, cool and clear conditions are expected across SE
TX tonight as surface high pressure builds down into the region. We
should see temperatures fall quickly this evening, with lows in the
lower 40s north...mid and upper 40s central and south and the lower
and mid 50s along the coast.
However, this respite from rain could be very brief. A broad trough
at the mid/upper levels is set to move east across the Plains tomor-
row...bringing with it a couple of shortwaves which could be enough
to generate some widely scattered showers (as well as some isolated
thunderstorms). While overall moisture levels are progged to be low,
PWs do appear to climb into the 0.7-1.0 inch range through the day.
This along with a slightly favorable upper jet placement(LRQ) could
support 20-30% POPs for much of the region...starting from the west
late tomorrow morning through the afternoon. A second weaker short-
wave tomorrow evening may not have enough to work with, but hi-res/
CAMS do indicate a weaker band moving across the northern CWFA dur-
that time. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to around 70...
with lows in the mid and upper 40s to around 50. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Surface high pressure will transition off to the east allowing
onshore winds to resume by late Thursday. This will bring some lower
level Gulf moisture back into the area and a gradual return to
muggier conditions with lows in the 60s. Combination of some
subtle mid level ridging and overall shallow depth of quality
moisture should keep rain chances on the low-nil side until early
next week. Next best shot of precipitation looks to be around
Tuesday with the approach of the next western trof and associated
frontal boundary. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period across
the SE TX sites. N-NE winds around 5 KTS tonight and 5-10 KTS on
Wed. Winds become VRB Wed afternoon thru Thu morning as a sfc
boundary meanders over the region. There is a chance for showers
and possible iso storms Wed late afternoon or evening as an upper
level trough moves across the Southern Plains, but coverage and
intensity will depend on how strong the cap will be at that time.
For this TAF set, mentioned VCSH for that timeframe for all sites
except LBX/GLS. Storms, if any, should exit to the east by around
midnight.
24-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
A lingering elevated, longer period southerly swell will be on a
gradual decline tonight and Wednesday. At 230pm, seas at buoy 42019
were are running around 7ft. Will maintain the small craft advsy
offshore til 7pm and see if we can get them to fall another foot.
May need to issue another short term extension if they don`t.
Otherwise, northeast winds will generally prevail into early
Thursday. As surface high pressure moves off to the east, and lee
side pressures fall, onshore winds should resume late Thursday and
gradually increase in speed heading into the weekend. Dewpoints
will probably approach nearshore water temps over the weekend, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog/haze develop...but wind
speeds currently look high enough to mitigate a substantial dense
fog threat. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
College Station (CLL) 45 67 47 75 / 0 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 49 69 50 77 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 68 60 70 / 0 10 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$