Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A potentially active short-term is expected with the approach/pass-
age/stalling of a cold front as well as weak shortwave activity at
the upper levels.

Warm/muggy weather this morning will transition to more warm/muggy
weather this afternoon but with increasing rain chances across our
northern FA (stretching from the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods)
as the next cold front begins moving into the region. Abundant low
level moisture along with daytime heating(increasing instability)/
favorable shear should lead to the development of thunderstorms a-
long/near the front. Some storms could be strong or severe as they
track into the area from west later this afternoon. But that being
said, SPC has shrunk the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 5) a bit for
our W/NW counties in their Day 1 outlook. However, a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) will remain in place through today/tonight for much
of SE TX. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail.

In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also the threat
for excessive rainfall with this activity later this afternoon and
continuing tonight (and through Sat/Sun). And much like the severe
potential, WPC has trimmed the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 4) for
today/tonight, to only western portions of the CWA. Elsewhere, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) will continue.

With the stalled cold front across SE TX (likely just inland/along
the coast), Sat could be a rather wet day. The potential for heavy
rain and flooding will depend a lot on what happens today/tonight
(to some extent) but conditions do remain favorable for the devel-
opment of additional activity tomorrow and tomorrow night. There`s
still uncertainty with regards to timing/location for the heaviest
rains per the track of the embedded disturbances in the flow aloft
(from around the base of the closed upper low lingering just south
of the Four Corners). WPC has almost all of SE TX in a Slight Risk
for excessive rain for Sat/Sat night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The wet pattern that will dominate the upcoming weekend is
expected to continue into Sunday as the slowly advancing frontal
boundary continues to push offshore while a developing weak
surface trough along the coast continues to advance towards the
Central Gulf. The midlevel pattern will continue to be
characterized by the passage of several weak shortwaves that
should continue to produce fairly widespread showers and storms.
The slow advance of the boundary should shift the main axis of
rainfall towards the coast, where an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall are possible on Sunday before a shift to northeast winds
behind the departing front will bring a surge of drier air to the
area. While heavy rainfall will ultimately be limited by a lack of
available SB instability, low-level moisture still remains
abundant and some pockets of locally heavy rain will remain
possible closer to the coast. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal
risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and south of the I-10
corridor for the time being. Severe storm development, while again
not impossible, will also be limited by weaker speed shear and
less SB instability compared to previous days.

As the front advances offshore on Monday, a shift to moderate
northeast winds will put a temporary end to the wet pattern as an
influx of drier air brings a return to more seasonable conditions.
Daytime highs on Monday will struggle to eclipse 70, while clear
skies and steady CAA will drive lows into the 40s to low 50s.
Winds taper off on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead
as highs remain in the 60s, with moisture return underway by
Tuesday night as this surface high shifts into the Central Gulf.

Models currently remain in disagreement for the mid-late week
period. GFS shows a more progressive development of the next upper
low/trough, which in its most recent solution will induce a
coastal low by late Wednesday which could bring our next period of
widespread (and possibly heavy) rain. EC solution, on the other
hand, shows a slower and less potent upper low with most of the
associated rainfall occuring on Thursday. Nonetheless, the pattern
as we head into the middle/end of the upcoming week should be
fairly unsettled with increasing rainfall chances.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

GLS at IFR with limited VSBYs and low CIGs. LBX/IAH both at MVFR
with CIGs. All other sites at VFR this afternoon. Expect SHRA/TSRA
to begin around 19/20Z and continue through around 02Z. Some
thunderstorms could produce large hail with the potential for
significant hail (2"+). Damaging winds will also be possible in
and in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Activity will taper off
closer to midnight from west to east. Chance of rain will return
Saturday morning into the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds continue well into the weekend
ahead of the passage of a cold front on Sunday. Wind speeds will
occasionally approach caution thresholds at times, and periods of
fog development are also possible prior to the frontal passage.
Scattered showers and storms will develop on Friday, and become
more widespread on Saturday and Sunday as the front slowly
advances towards the coast. By late Sunday, the front will advance
offshore with moderate to strong northeast winds developing behind
its passage. This will likely require a Small Craft Advisory
before conditions begin to improve by late Monday/early Tuesday.

Cady

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Friday (3/15),
Saturday (3/16) and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Fri: 2.81/1969   2.06/1974    1.66/1944    1.88/1896   5.15/1993
Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  64  72  61 /  50  30  80  60
Houston (IAH)  83  67  75  64 /  50  40  50  60
Galveston (GLS)  74  65  71  64 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cady


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