-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
327
FXUS64 KHGX 022358
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The main MCS has moved off to the east; however, some development
ongoing behind the outgoing MCS is working its way east through the
Houston Metro. Expecting this activity to die down by the evening
hours. Flash Flood Warnings have been replaced with Areal Flood
Warnings as we continue to receive reports of flooded, washed out,
and impassable roads. Another round of showers and storms will be
possible overnight into Friday morning. Overnight activity is not
expected to produce nearly the amount of rainfall that has been
observed over the last 24 hours. Rainfall totals will generally be
0.5"-2" with isolated 3-4" totals possible.

Adams

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Complex forecast continues tonight into Friday morning...while the
main MCS has moved east out of the area, a surface boundary lingers
in its wake. This is observed with the current line of showers
training east through the Houston Metro. For tonight into Friday
forecast PWAT values still remain elevated, but the depth of
moisture availability is more shallow than what has been available
over the last 24 hours. Activity for tonight into Friday is
expected to be more scattered in coverage, as opposed to the
organized structure that moved through SE Texas today. While that
does provide a note of positivity, this is also where the
uncertainty lies. Tonight`s activity is projected to occur after
midnight into Friday morning, and will be heavily dependent on
where smaller scale boundaries, pockets of stronger moisture
convergence, and higher PWAT values set up, so it is difficult to
say which locations will see the isolated higher amounts. At this
point current thoughts are that the most likely area for higher
totals will be concentrated south of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall
totals are expected to generally remain in the 0.5"-2.0" range
with isolated amounts of 3.0-4.0" possible.

With the additional expected rainfall, uncertainty of where higher
amounts will fall, and the saturated soils from today`s rainfall,
the decision has been made to keep the Flood Watch in effect through
Friday afternoon. Austin and Colorado Counties have been removed
from the Flood Watch.

Areal flood warnings are in effect and rivers are forecast to
continue to rise (read more about that in the hydrology section
below). Please continue to avoid driving through flooded roads, do
not drive around barricades, and pay attention to instructions from
local officials with regards to any evacuations.

Rainfall chances will continue to decrease through the day Friday.
Friday night will feature mostly cloudy skies with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

On Saturday afternoon, there is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly for far N/NW areas, elsewhere it should
remain dry as a shortwave tough moves mainly north of the area.
Another more significant mid/upper tough will move across northern
portions of the area on Sunday and will bring a better chance
for showers and thunderstorms to SE Texas - mainly along and
north of I-10.

Early next week, the focus shifts to drier and warmer weather, with
above normal temperatures expected all week. By Tuesday, max temps
will reach 90 inland and heat indices will peak in the 95 to 100
degree range. Expect the heat to build during the week with max temps
reaching the mid 90s and heat indices peaking in the low 100s by
midweek.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

So far, so good. This afternoon`s activity has moved out/dissipated
over SE TX at this time with VFR conditions currently in place. But
will be expecting a return of lower (MVFR) ceilings as this evening
progresses. Hi-res models seem to be backing off from previous fore-
casts of the return of strong/organized activity developing late to-
night...with only scattered activity progged in its stead. So, have
gone ahead and tweaked the TAFs to these trends. Starting a mention
of VCSH overnight to VCTS by Fri morning/early afternoon for now. S
to SE winds will remain somewhat elevated at 4-9kts tonight...11-19
kts by tomorrow afternoon. 41
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Seeing an outflow boundary affect the upper coast early this afternoon,
but these NW winds are temporary, and moderate onshore winds will
return and prevail through the forecast period. In general, the
onshore winds will remain around 15 kts to occasionally 20 kts.
Will continue the caution statement for the evening hours tonight
with seas 5 to 7 feet over the offshore waters and 3 to 6 feet over
the nearshore waters.

There is a chance for showers and storms, some could become strong,
through Friday morning. During the weekend, most of the rainfall is
expected to remain inland. Tranquil weather conditions expected next
week as mid to upper level ridging builds over the region.

Wood

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major
flood stage:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor forecast to go to Major
- Trinity River (Romayer): forecast to go to Major
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major
- West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): forecast to go to Major
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): forecast to go to Major
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major
- San Jacinto (Sheldon): forecast to go to Major
- Peach Creek (Splendora): Minor forecast to go to Major
- Caney Creek (Splendora): forecast to go to Major

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor
updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat
continues.

Wood

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
College Station (CLL)  70  84  71  85 /  30  40  20  20
Houston (IAH)  72  84  72  85 /  50  50  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  73  80 /  50  40  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-212-213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Wood