Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261654
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers continue to develop near the coast and a second area over
North Texas is moving south. GOES-R derived PW fields show values
near 1.90 over the extreme eastern part of the CWA which lower to
1.50 over the extreme west. Forecast soundings show little in the
way of capping this afternoon with PW values between 1.70-1.80
inches. Short term guidance is more aggressive with rain chances
this afternoon and have added VCTS to most TAF sites. Precip
should end between 01-02z with clearing skies overnight. Could
get some patchy fog at KLBX and KCXO or a brief window of IFR
ceilings near KCLL around sunrise. Both the ARW and NMM show a
disturbance rotating into the area from the NE on Sunday afternoon
so added a VCTS for KIAH. WInds will be light westerly today
becoming south with a west wind again late tonight. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1037 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/...

.UPDATE...
Cumulus field developing across the southern two thirds of the
area with showers creeping southward into Houston County this
hour. Expecting a mainly dry day with slight to low end precipitation
chances focused along and east of the I-45 corridor. If heating
does trigger uplift, regional soundings show steep enough lapse
rates for isolated storms to produce gusty winds in excess of 30
mph within their downdrafts. Areal moisture is modeled to slightly
fall through tomorrow and, with western upper ridging expected to
further amplify northward into the Plains, the forecast swings to
more subsident, dry and downright hot this Memorial Day Weekend.
Ambient afternoon temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s
with maximum heat indices topping out in the 104F to 108F range
for a few hours each subsequent afternoon. If working outside, no
matter the cloud cover, you should highly consider remaining hydrated
and taking frequent breaks in the shade that roughly double your
(exertion) time out in the sunlight. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  93  73  94  73  96 /  10  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)          93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        87  79  90  80  90 /  20  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$



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