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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241228
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
728 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Overall, the forecast for SE TX will remain a quiet one through the
short term...with perhaps a slight chance of a shower or two (main-
ly across our northern CWA) and a general trend towards warmer more
humid conditions (for the entire CWA).

Persistent onshore winds will continue to deepen low-level moisture
over the region today and tomorrow as surface high pressure lingers
to our east (along the eastern Gulf coast). Aloft, the increasingly
NW flow will help to push a couple of weak disturbances into/across
the state.  This along with daytime heating could produce some very
isolated showers this afternoon, generally in/around locations from
the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods. We could see a repeat of this
same scenario for tomorrow as a lot of the large scale features re-
main in place. Rainfall totals (if any) will be very light.

So, with mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies, highs today and tomorrow
will run in the lower to mid 80s range...in the upper 70s along the
beaches. Tonight, lows will be in the mid and upper 60s...then into
upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A cold front associated with a low pressure system moving through
the Central Plains on Friday will approach - but not pass through
- our area on Friday. This will cause a tightening pressure
gradient across the western Gulf breezy southerly winds and
increased temperatures and humidity. The front will approach close
enough to bring some isolated to scattered showers and storms for
areas generally north of Conroe Friday morning/afternoon. This
cold front becomes a stationary front and retreats back to the
northwest keeping SE Texas in the heat and humidity through the
weekend. Another disturbance is looking to move through the
Southern Plains Sunday into Monday reinvigorating showers and
storms along the boundary. The boundary is expected to move far
enough east to bring those showers and storms to our region Sunday
into Monday, but again doesn`t quite make it all the way through
keeping the heat and humidity in SE Texas into the middle of next
week (and looking like through the rest of Summer at this point).

High temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s and then
mid to upper 80s over the weekend and into next week. Heat indicies
are likely to climb into the low to mid 90s starting on Saturday.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for the entire long
term.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Models have been running a bit more aggressive with lower CIGs these
last couple days, and today doesn`t seem to be an exception, so far.
Have gone with a consistence forecast for the most part with the 12Z
package: brief MVFR ceilings in the morning then VFR for the rest of
the day. S/SE winds should run 5-11kts during the day 2-6kts night.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light onshore flow and low seas will continue through tomorrow
morning with winds strengthen tomorrow night into Friday morning
ahead of some approaching weak boundary. This boundary will remain
stalled to the northwest into the weekend continuing the moderate to
strong onshore flow. The winds will strengthen to around 15-25kts
with occasion higher gusts, so small craft may will likely need to
exercise caution as early as Thursday night and Small Craft
Advisories may be needed heading into the weekend. The increase in
winds will also lead to an increase in seas to around 5 to 8 feet.
The persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong
rip currents Friday and through the weekend along with elevated
tides.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  67  83  71 /  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  83  67  83  72 /  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  70  78  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler