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000
FXUS64 KHGX 100552
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.Synopsis...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Another round of storms has exited off to the east with some light
to moderate showers ongoing at the present hour. The next round of
storms is on the edge of our border, and should be impacting the
western counties within the next hour. KCRP and KLCH have both
released special soundings that give us a better idea of the two
environments we are sandwiched between. KCRP`s sounding revealed
steep lapse rates ~9°C/km, CAPE values well above 4000 J/kg, and
bulk shear values around 60 knots. All this suggests an environment
conducive to large to very large hail. KLCH on the other hand, has
decent lapse rates ~7°C/km, deep moisture (PWAT around 1.8"), bulk
shear values around 70 knots, and 0-3km SRH values around 230
m^2/s^2...this suggests an environment more favorable of well
organized storms, potentially supercellular, and an environment more
suitable for tornadogenesis.

SPC mesoanalysis for our area continues to show steep lapse rates (7-
9°C/km) , a decent amount of shear (45-60 knots), and CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg. Higher SRH values are more towards our east, but the
area north of I-10 and east of I-45 could see SRH values increasing
over the next couple of hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued, and now includes all of
SE Texas with the exception of Houston, Trinity, and Madison
Counties. Large to very large hail and damaging winds remain the
primary threats; however, the environment along and north of the I-
10 corridor could lead to a few tornadoes. The Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be in place through 7 AM.

Adams

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The line of storms will exit our CWA as it continues off to the east
this morning. Cooler and drier air will funnel in from behind, along
with gusty west to northwest winds. Could see some lingering showers
towards the northern counties as the low continues to spin and bring
wraparound moisture into those areas. Cloud cover will decrease
during the day with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies expected by
the evening hours. Highs for Wednesday will be in the 70s area wide.
Lows will drop into the 50s with isolated upper 40s in northern
locations.

Quiet weather will continue into Thursday as high pressure settles
into the area under sunny skies. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer as highs reach into the mid 70s to low 80s. Clear skies and
persistent NW winds will lead to slightly cooler nighttime
temperatures Thursday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Hopefully you will have the chance to enjoy the lower humidity in
the short term, because the long term features Southeast Texas
feeling more like Southeast Texas. The mid/upper pattern becomes
increasingly amplified towards the end of the week, with a mid/upper
ridge building over central CONUS. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
progresses eastward, introducing moist onshore flow that is expected
to persist through at least early next week. This will set the stage
for an increasingly warm and humid weather pattern. Low dew points
(50s) are expected to still be in place on Friday with afternoon
highs in the low 80s inland to mid 70s at the coast. Therefore,
Friday will still have a more spring-like feel. But those dew points
will be on the rise as onshore flow persists. By Sunday-Tuesday,
inland highs could be well into the 80s with dew points well into
the 60s, if not the low 70s. We could be talking about overnight
lows that struggle to drop below 70 by early next week. A tad summer-
like but still not the typical blowtorch conditions of `real`
southeast Texas summer.

Deep layer troughing over western CONUS may induce sfc low
pressure over the central plains by Monday-Tuesday. However, most of
the associated precip will remain well north of our CWA if current
guidance has anything to say about it. That being said, weak
disturbances embedded in the flow aloft could provide sufficient
lift for some precip by early next week. For now, we have kept low
PoPs (10-20%) over our northern counties Monday-Tuesday.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

06Z TAFs will have SHRA/TSRA and an MVFR/IFR ceiling-visibility mix
thru 11-12Z. Could see some wind gusts 35-40kt or higher in the
stronger storms. All activity should be off to the east around or
shortly after 12Z. Issues the rest of the day will be occasionally
gusty NW winds and when VFR conditions will develop. Will show VFR
closer to the coast earlier in the afternoon and later inland as
wrap around clouds linger.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A long fetch of moderate onshore winds and elevated seas will continue
early this morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms (some strong/severe)
can be expected into this morning as the next storm system moves eastward
across the area. A cold front will move into the waters today with moderate
to strong offshore winds and rough seas developing in its wake. Winds
will gradually weaken and seas will slowly come down Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night. Southeast winds will return to the area at the
end of the week and gradually strengthen over the weekend. Elevated
water levels in the bays ahead of today`s cold front will transition
to below normal levels late tonight and Thursday behind the front. 42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year) for today (4/10).

College Station - 1.80/1978
Houston         - 2.57/2004
Houston Hobby   - 0.90/1975
Galveston       - 1.88/1926
Palacios        - 1.92/2015

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  51  75  48 /  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  55  79  52 /  30   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  59  77  62 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$AVIATION...42 MARINE...42