National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 162015
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another warm and humid night is on tap for tonight as lows continue
to trend roughly 10 degrees above climatological normal values, and
onshore flow continue to funnel in moisture. Showers continue to
skirt just west of the Brazos Valley with a frontal boundary parked
in the vicinity. Light winds and increased moisture may create a
suitable environment for patchy fog development; however, not
expecting fog to be dense.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as
southwesterly flow at the 850mb level continues to draw in warmer
air, resulting in warmer surface temperatures. Persistent onshore
flow will allow PWAT values to reach to 1.5-1.8" by Wednesday night,
leading to another night of warm and muggy conditions. A few showers
will be possible as an embedded shortwave passes over SE Texas;
however, chances are slim as we remain in an area of subsidence with
drier air aloft. Lows will once again be in the 70s area wide.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Continued mostly cloudy, warm and muggy weather continues Thursday
into Saturday. That said, though we will be seeing slightly
higher chances of rainfall emerge with time as upper ridging
situated across the southern Gulf begins to flatten locally.

A weak frontal boundary will be sagging south into Texas Thursday.
Guidance is in fairly decent agreement showing showers & thunderstorms
developing along the front during the afternoon and evening hours
well to our n/nw. With the loss of heating, these should mostly
dissipate before reaching our CWA, but it`s that time year where
it`s probably best to maintain some lowish chances in the fcst for
our northern counties just in case things make it a bit further
south than model consensus suggests.

Friday, isolated to scattered diurnally driven precip is possible
in association with daytime heating, seabreeze, weak upper
disturbances and/or remnant outflows in the area.

Saturday, the weak cold front that`s been meandering to our north
gets a southward push. Look for a line of showers and thunderstorms
or MCS to develop in advance and track across the region overnight.
Though the more significant wx should mostly be over with Sunday
morning, some of the latest guidance shows some lingering scattered
precip ahead of the H85/H7 front continuing into the afternoon
hours.

Clouds should gradually diminish Sunday night and we`ll return to
more seasonable wx conditions for a couple of days into early next
week.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR CIGs ongoing this afternoon. Winds have (for the most part)
relaxed; however, still have a few sites across the area gusting
to above 20 kts. Isolated showers possible this afternoon for
CLL/UTS terminals. MVFR CIGs will continue into the evening hours
with light winds contributing to potential IFR CIGs and patchy
fog. Decreased VSBYs will be possible along and south of the I-10
corridor overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Moderate south to southeast winds and elevated seas will persist into
the middle of the week. Both winds and seas will slightly diminish during
the second half of the work week. Periods of haze and fog can be
anticipated - though it is not expected to become dense. The next
cold front, and associated showers and thunderstorms, is scheduled
to push off the coast late Saturday night and Sunday morning followed
by moderate northeast winds in its wake.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  86  71  88 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  72  85  72  87 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  71  78  71  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$