Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to build over the Plains while the
surface high continues to move to our east. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
and southeast to south flow at the surface will lead to warmer and
slightly more humid conditions through the remainder of the short
term period. Therefore, a dry and warmer day is on tap for southeast
TX today with plenty of sunshine and highs into the low to mid 70s.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to another quiet and
chilly night. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s.

Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern on
Friday. Lee cyclogenesis across the mid/high Plains will result in a
tight surface pressure gradient during the day. In addition, a south
to north low-level jet will move over the region; therefore, a
breezy Friday can be expected. Southerly surface winds, 850 mb
temperatures into the 9 to 12 degC range and mostly sunny skies will
result in warmer conditions. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to
near 80. A tranquil and mild night is anticipated Friday night into
Saturday with temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Mid/upper ridging and sfc onshore flow will rule the day this
weekend into Monday. There will be weak disturbances embedded in
the south to southwest flow aloft. Enough moisture and lift may
exist to result in periods of cloudiness during this time frame.
That could have implications on temperatures. The Friday-Monday
forecast remains quite warm with rising humidity. But guidance has
managed to trend those temps slightly downward and that may be due
to clouds. For now, inland high temperatures are still expected
to average around 80 on Saturday, low/mid 80s Sunday, and
mid/upper 80s Monday (5-10 degrees cooler near the coast each
day). Overnight lows generally 65-70 degrees. South to southeast
winds are expected to gradually increase during this time frame.

The aforementioned wind increase is a function of the next
approaching system. Deep, positive tilted mid/upper troughing
over western CONUS induces LL pressure falls over the OK, KS, and
the TX panhandle on Monday. The resulting sfc low pressure system
deepens over KS and moves northeastward towards the Great Lakes
on Tuesday, while the low`s trailing cold front pushes through SE
TX. Though the bulk of the large scale lift passes our region to
the north, LL convergence from the front as well as some modest
PVA from the approaching trough may suffice for a few showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. I kept Tuesday`s PoPs
relatively low, ranging from 10% in our SW counties to generally
20-30% elsewhere. Northern most Piney Woods areas in our CWA may
be far enough north to feel a little more of that large scale PVA.
Thus we have 30-40% in the northernmost reaches of our CWA.

Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions are expected behind the
front. The southern half of the CWA may sneak in another day in
the 80s on Tuesday. By Wednesday, our temperatures grids show
widespread low/mid 70s for highs with upper 60s in our northern
counties. The early outlook for next Wednesday night has lows
generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds.
Winds will shift to the south in the afternoon.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

As a surface high pressure system progresses eastward, light
northeast winds will veer southeastward today. Southeast to south
winds will continue and gradually increase through the weekend and
into early next week. The increasing wind speeds along with the
growing south to southeasterly fetch will gradually build seas.
Caution flags may be warranted by the end of the week into early
next week. Cannot rule out advisories either. A cold front is
expected to push offshore on Tuesday. Strong NW winds are possible
in the front`s wake by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Advisory
level winds and seas will be possible behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  54  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  55  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  62  75  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self


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