Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 180428
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

It may be hard to believe based off today`s rainy / stormy aesthetic, but the
weather pattern is in flux, and it`s heading towards a much needed spell of
drier and cooler weather. But first, we must get through a series of small
disturbances aloft that are bringing ample lift to a southeast Texas atmosphere
that is rich in moisture and sufficiently unstable. The resulting scattered
showers / thunderstorms should continue through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening. Coverage has been most widespread across our southern
counties thus far (as of 2:00 PM). But radar trends and mesoscale guidance
indicate that our northern counties could very well deal with scattered
showers and thunderstorms of their own.

Meanwhile to our north, a 1037 MB high pressure system, centered over Alberta,
is drifting southward into the northern and central plains. As this high continues
its southward trek, colder and drier air will rush down the plains and into SE
Texas. North to north-northeast winds are expected to increase overnight into
tomorrow morning, and remain elevated through the day on Monday as the southward
building high tightens the LL gradient. Much drier and cooler air will advect
into the region tonight into tomorrow. Tonight`s lows are expected to range
from around 50F in our northernmost counties to around 60F at the coast. The
presence of lingering clouds coupled with CAA will likely prevent temperatures
from rising much during the morning hours tomorrow. And even though the sun is
expected to eventually bless us with its presence tomorrow, afternoon high
temperatures will struggle to warm out of the 60s while dew points fall into
30s and 40s. The hoodie weather returns by Monday night, with lows ranging
from around 40F in our northernmost counties to mid/upper 40s in Houston
and low 50s at the coast.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Fairly dry, cool wx on Tuesday with highs topping out in the 60s.
As surface high pressure across the northern Gulf coast moves
eastward, and some impulses in the mid/upper flow approach from
the west, cloud cover should be on the increase as the day/evening
progresses.

Column probably won`t modify and become moist enough to support much
in the way of rain chances until later in the day Wednesday...but
probably moreso late Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be
the time period where we`ll see the next upper trof moving closer
to the area from the west and an associated coastal trof developing
offshore. There`s still somewhat of a split in deterministic
guidance regarding the finer details (timing/position of upper
trof and overall strength/focusing of coastal trof). Regardless,
Thursday is penciled in for having the next best shot of rain
across the area.

This system tracks off to the east Thursday night and should
allow for drier conditions and seasonal temps leading into the
weekend.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Only MVFR decks at 04Z are in/around LBX and GLS. Current thinking
has these decks breaking up while another building/thickening deck
around 3500-4000 feet (in/around the ACT area) tries to build in from
the NW. So generally going with VFR/BKN040 and increasing N to NNE
winds overnight. Any ceilings that do develop are expected to begin
breaking up around 10-14Z as drier air works into the area from the
N, then just anticipating gusty N winds and some high clouds for the
rest of the day. Much weaker N winds will prevail 00Z-12Z on the 19th
(Monday night-Tuesday morning) as high pressure builds into the area.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Scattered showers will linger overnight, but the threat of severe
storms is relatively low...and dwindling as time progresses.
Winds and seas will be on an upward climb tonight in the wake of a
passing cold front. Have posted a Small Craft Advisory for all
waters beginning at 1 am. A few gusts to near gale are possible in
the offshore Gulf waters early Monday morning. Winds/seas remain
elevated into Monday night. Improving marine conditions are
anticipated Tuesday as winds weaken and shift to the east, then to
the southeast on Wednesday. Some unsettled weather is forecast
for Thursday in response to a developing coastal trough along with
the approach of an upper level storm system. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  64  42  64 /  50   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  56  68  45  67 /  50   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  59  66  53  62 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$


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