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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies can be found across all of Southeast
Texas this afternoon in the wake of the late yesterday through early
this morning rain producing system and associated cold front. After
this morning`s lows bottomed out mostly in the 50s inland and around
60 at the coast, today`s afternoon highs so far (as of 3 PM) are in
the upper 60s to around 70 across most of the area. It has been on
the breezy side today too (north to northeast winds generally around
10 to 20 mph and occasionally gusty). High pressure settling into the
area tonight combined with weakening winds and almost totally clear
skies will help our overnight low temperatures to range from the low
to mid 40s inland to the upper 50s at the coast. Look for one more
day with coolish temperatures and low humidities on Monday and Monday
night before the area warms up once again. As the high moves off to
the east, Monday`s winds will swing back around to the east and southeast
as the day progresses, and we will have high temperatures peaking in
the low to mid 70s. Monday night will be the last night a majority of
inland locations have lows in the 50s for a while as our onshore flow
begins to strengthen in response to the next developing storm system
out west.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The surface high that gives us cooler, less humid days in the short
term...will shift E of the area on Tuesday with return flow kicking
in on off the Gulf. This sets the stage for a warming trend and
increasing levels of humidity as we go through the mid and later
part of the week. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to
strengthening onshore flow, with breezy, warm and humid conditions
in place by late in the week and next weekend. Should be mainly free
of any rain through at least Wednesday with some scattered showers
and possibly a thunderstorm possible as we get toward Friday and
next weekend. By that time will have plenty of deep moisture and an
upper trough progressing eastward across the Plains. Northern zones
will have a better chance of showers...and possible
thunderstorms...closer to the influence of that upper feature. Will
likely see a cap inhibiting deeper convection for at least southern
zones. Better thunderstorm chances would be north of the forecast
area the way it looks now.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Area skies have been scattering/clearing from N to S this morning, and
expect this trend to continue this afternoon (VFR up N, MVFR becoming
VFR down S). VFR tonight and continuing VFR on Monday. Occasionally
gusty N winds (20 to 25 kt) this afternoon will weaken this evening,
and expect mainly at around 5 to 10 kt or less overnight. On Monday,
E winds in the morning becoming SE in the afternoon, at around 5 to
10 kt inland and closer to 10 to 12 kt at GLS and LBX.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Moderate NE winds this afternoon will veer and become more ENE
tonight. Higher resolution models suggests speeds should stay up
over the marine area including the bays around 20 knots or so...so
planning to stick with a lower end Small Craft Advisory until at
least 7am CDT. The gradient should slacken enough by Monday to
drop winds below SCA levels but will still be somewhat breezy as
high pressure builds in from the N. The high shifts E on Tuesday
with return onshore flow kicking in. This sets the stage for a
warming trend and increasing levels of humidity as we go through
the week. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to
strengthening south and southeasterly flow and building seas by
late in the week. Should be mainly free of any rain across the
waters for at least the next 5 days.

Reilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  47  71  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  51  73  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  70  63  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$