000
FXUS64 KHGX 231730
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

For the most part, not a lot issues are expected for the short-term
as the weather remains generally quiet/dry across SE TX. Flat zonal
winds at the mid/upper levels are progged to become more northwest-
erly through tomorrow as the next longwave trough approaches/begins
to develop over the southern US west coast. This along with a deep-
ening onshore flow at the lower levels here should result in warmer
temperatures the next couple of days (and beyond). Additionally, we
could also see some very isolated mainly afternoon showers tomorrow.
But, not at all confident with this scenario at this time given the
building ridge aloft.

As for temperatures, the warming trend will continue. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to around 80 today...lower to mid 80s on Weds. Low
temperatures will run similarly...lower to mid 60s tonight...mid to
upper 60s Weds night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Summer creeps closer and closer during the long term as persistent
southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft bringing
increasing temperatures and humidity. Afternoon high temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s on Thursday, mainly mid 80s on Friday,
and then upper 80s Saturday through Monday. Dew points will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s through the long term thanks to that moist,
southerly flow, leading to heat indicies will be rising into the low
90s by Saturday. bleh. Overnight lows will see a similar warming
trend with minimum temperatures upper 60s to low 70s Thursday night
becoming low to mid 70s by the weekend.

The upper level ridge overnight will begin to break down on Friday
allowing for some short wave to pass through the Southern Plains
through the weekend. Main impact to SE Texas will be increased
cloudiness, but can`t out rule some isolated showers or storms making
their way into the northern third (generally north of Conroe) over
the weekend into early next week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR around the area, but anticipate all TAF
sites will see CIGs lift to VFR this afternoon, even if it`s just
barely in some spots. Clouds hang tight with us through the
period, gradually coming back down to MVFR late this evening. Some
guidance gets aggressive in this drop, going to low MVFR and even
IFR in spots. This seems reasonable for short stretches, but not
enough confidence in precise impacts to lay it out in the TAF this
cycle. Future cycles may want to dig into this nuance a little
more. Similarly, there could be a bit more wiggling in the winds,
but for now stick with sketching out the broader S/SE pattern,
becoming light/VRB late, and S/SE winds returning in the morning.
Finally, as moisture continues to deepen and ample clouds, some
light showers here and there aren`t impossible...but not
significant enough to explicitly put into the forecast at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Light onshore flow and low seas will continue through Thursday. The
onshore flow begins to strengthen Thursday night into Friday morning
ahead of some approaching weak disturbances. The winds will
strengthen to around 15-25kts with occasion higher gusts, so small
craft may will likely need to exercise caution as early as Thursday
night and Small Craft Advisories may be needed heading into the
weekend. The increase in winds will also lead to an increase in seas
to around 5 to 8 feet. Conditions improve into next week as high
pressure build overhead.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  65  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  79  66  83  67 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  70  77  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler