Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000 FXUS66 KHNX 281045 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 345 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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1. There is a 65 percent chance for at least 8 inches of snow for elevations above 7,000 feet in Yosemite National Park through 5 PM Thursday. 2. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM Thursday through 1 AM Friday for the Kern County Deserts and Mountain Slopes. 3. There is around generally a 60 to 90 percent chance of one foot of snow or more in the Sierra Nevada above 5,500 feet Friday afternoon through Sunday, mainly Fresno County north. 4. There is around 55 to 75 percent chance of one inch of rain or more in the Sierra Nevada foothills and about 25 to 50 percent for the Kern County mountains Friday afternoon through Sunday. 5. Dry and warming trend is forecast to occur early next week.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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A short wave trough is bringing light to moderate precipitation to areas mainly north of Kern County. Rainfall amounts thus far are generally a few hundredths to around one tenth of an inch across the San Joaquin Valley with one quarter to one half of an inch in the Mariposa and Madera County portions of the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation will continue through the morning then taper off this afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect above 7000 feet for Yosemite NP outside of the valley and for the Upper San Joaquin River through 5 PM this afternoon. There is a 65 percent chance for at least 8 inches of snow above 7000 feet in Yosemite NP outside of the valley. A tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will result in strong westerly wind gusts across the Mojave Slopes and Kern County desert today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these areas from 11 AM this morning until 1 AM on Friday. Strongest gusts will occur around Indian Wells Canyon where the probabilities for 45 mph or higher gusts are 90 percent. A stronger storm system is on tap for Friday into the weekend as energy from the Gulf of Alaska drops south and develops a closed upper low off the northern California coast. Moist southwesterly aloft will be focused over central California Friday night into Saturday morning when the bulk of the precipitation is expected to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area outside of the Sierra Nevada under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday. Probabilities for one inch of rainfall are generally 55 to 75 percent across the Sierra Nevada foothills and generally 25 to 50 percent over the Kern County mountains, highest around the Frazier Park and Pine Mountain Club communities. Snow levels are expected to be near 5000 feet for the majority of the event. Probabilities for one foot of snowfall from Friday afternoon to Sunday afternoon are generally 60 to 90 percent over the Sierra Nevada and 40 to 60 percent around Pine Mountain Club. Generally light showers will continue Saturday afternoon through Sunday then taper off Sunday night. Snow levels lower to around 4500 feet Sunday morning and could result in some mixed precipitation along the Tehachapi and Tejon Passes. An upper ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific Monday through Wednesday. A warming trend will result with maximum temperatures forecast to be around 4 to 8 degrees above climatological normal by Wednesday. Normal highs across the San Joaquin Valley are in the lower 70s. Probabilities for a max temperature of 80 degrees or higher across the SJ Valley on Wednesday generally range from 25 to 50 percent.
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&& .AVIATION...
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Areas of MVFR with local mountain obscuring IFR conditions in precipitation for areas mainly north of Kern County. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours.
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&& .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
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None.
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&& .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337>339. Winter Weather Advisory above 7000 feet until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ323-326.
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&& $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford

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