-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
993
FXUS66 KHNX 091958
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1258 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
1. A warming trend will continue through Sunday.

2. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around twelve
degrees above normal for this time of year.

3. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal values
Monday through Thursday.

4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
and a portion of the Kern County mountains and desert Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening, and then each afternoon
over the Sierra Nevada through Tuesday of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level area of low pressure is wandering westward and
will be centered near the Great Basin region on Friday.
Meanwhile under sunny skies in the resultant dry northeasterly
flow, much of our area is seeing a notable warmup. Current 24
hour temperature trends are running up around 5-10 degrees in
the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent terrain, while Kern County
desert areas and adjacent slopes are seeing just a couple of
degrees of warming. Higher Sierra elevations are near
yesterday`s temperatures or even a couple of degrees lower.
These trends are expected to continue through the afternoon, and
highs in the Valley should top out around 4 to 8 degrees above
climatology this afternoon.

Tomorrow will bring another few degrees of warming, and high
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley will reach around 90
degrees. The nearby upper level low pressure area will also
increase instability, leading to 15 to 20 percent probabilities
for thunderstorms Friday afternoon over the Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Kern County mountain and desert areas.

The upper low will lift out over the weekend as a high pressure
ridge edges ashore. Thunderstorm chances will be reduced to
around 10 to 15 percent and limited to the Sierra zones. Further
warming will occur through Sunday under the ridge, and by
Sunday afternoon, highs will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of
93 degrees or higher for select locations in the San Joaquin
Valley on Sunday, May 12th, 2024:

Fresno - 76%
Lemoore - 71%
Hanford - 66%
Delano - 66%
Bakersfield - 61%
Madera - 61%
Merced - 56%
Visalia - 51%
Porterville - 41%
Reedley - 31%

A weak low pressure center will cut across Southern California
and into the southwest states Monday and Tuesday, during which
time we will see little change in temperatures. Thunderstorm
probabilities each afternoon during this time will be 15 to 20
percent in the Sierra Nevada.

Temperatures will tick slightly upward for the middle of next
week under the influence of a Pacific high pressure ridge behind
the exiting weak low. Probabilities are around 30 to 50 percent
for high temperatures of at least 94 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley. Thunderstorm probabilities over the Sierra Nevada Wednesday
and Thursday are generally reduced to 15 percent or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&


.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few thunderstorms are expected over the Sierra Nevada after
18Z Friday, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout
Central California for at least the next 24 hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

-- Changed Discussion --
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...JEB
PIO/DSS........................DS

weather.gov/hanford