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443
FXUS66 KHNX 050905
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
205 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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1. Moderate to major winter storm impacts are expected in the
Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet through this morning due to
blowing snow and accumulated snow amounts of 12 to 24 inches.

2. Damaging wind gusts are anticipated along the Mojave Desert
Slopes this afternoon through this evening.

3. A warming trend is expected Monday through Saturday. Most of
the San Joaquin Valley has a 35-55% chance of reaching highs of
at least 90*F by Friday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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A late season storm which brought widespread
precipitation to our area continues to produce impacts as radar
imagery continues to show a band of light precipitation along
the cold frontal boundary over eastern Tulare and central Kern
Counties. Radar is also showing some isolated showers from
Fresno County northward with the snow level between 3000 and
4000 feet in the colder airmass behind the front. Showers
remain possible through this morning so a Winter Storm Warning
will continue over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada
until 800 am PDT this morning. NBM guidance continues to
indicate that precipitation across our area should end by late
this morning.

This system has also prodcued strong winds some of the exposed
ridge tops in the Sierra Nevada as well as along the Mojave
Desert slopes. Several stations in eastern Kern County have
measured gusts exceeding 45 mph with a few locations measuring
gusts in excess of 60 mph. Although wind have been decreasing
overnight, winds are expected to pick up again this afternoon
and evening along the Mojave Desert Slopes, Indian Wells Valley
and Mojave Desert areas and the current wind highlights will
remain in place until 1100 pm PDT this evening. Another
shortwave system moving north of area on Monday will bring
another period of increased onshore p-grads Monday evening and
provide for another round of gusty winds along the Mojave Desert
Slopes.

Meanwhile temperatures across most of our area are currently
running 10 to 20 DEG F below yday at this time as a modified
polar airmass has pushed into central CA behind the cold front.
As a result, maximum temperatures today are expected to be 12
to 15 DEG F below daily climatological normals across most of
our CWFA today.

Some airmass modification is expected to begin by Monday as an
upper ridge begins to amplify offshore. This will bring a slow
upward trend in temperatures each day next week with
temperatures rebounding to near normal levels by Wednesday.

The ensembles are in fairly good agreement for the latter
portion of the week with continued dry weather and temperatures
rising to above normal levels as the ensemble means are showing
high pressure strengthening over the area. Latest NBM
probabilistic guidance is a 35 to 55 PoE of 90 DEG F across most
of the San Joaquin Valley by Friday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Widespread MVFR with areas of mountain obscuring
IFR in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains in low clouds
and precipitation thru 18Z Sun with gradual improvement to VFR
by 06Z Mon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next
24 hours.
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&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339.
Winter Storm Warning above 6000 feet until 8 AM PDT this
morning for CAZ323-326>330.
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&&

$$

public/avivation/fire wx...DAS
idss...BS

weather.gov/hanford