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000
FOUS11 KWBC 180728
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 12Z Sun Apr 21 2024

...Central Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A dome of high pressure positioned over western Canada will
gradually inch southward and remain in place through the second
half of the week thanks to an upper level omega block over
northwestern North America. While there will be persistent
upsloping easterly flow into the CO/WY Front Range through Friday
morning, precipitation rates pick up in intensity by Friday
afternoon as an upper level trough tracks into the southwestern
U.S.. Broad 250-500mb PVA over the Central Rockies out ahead of the
upper trough and enhanced upper level divergence beneath the
right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak aloft will coincide
with a surge in low level easterly flow due to the strengthening
surface pressure gradient. The end result is a burst of heavy snow
over the Front Range with some light-to-moderate snow in the
central High Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Snow
may linger into the late morning hours Saturday, but given the time
of year, snow accumulations beyond mid-morning Saturday will be
tough to come by. Any snowfall looks to conclude by Saturday
afternoon. WPC PWPF sports moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall totals >6" at elevations >9,000ft in the Front Range of
the Colorado Rockies. There are moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall totals >2" in parts of southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska, but probabilities quickly drop down to lower chances
(10-30%) for >4" of snow in these same areas, indicating most
totals will be on the lighter side.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Mullinax






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