-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
117
FXUS64 KHUN 021337
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
837 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 837 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Another warm and muggy day today as high pressure to our east holds
on for a few more hours. Temperatures will soar into the high 80s
this afternoon with most locations taping out around 88 degrees.
Model guidance continues to refrain from indicating hitting 90
degrees today with below a 10% chance. So, while not impossible
that we see our first 90 degree day this afternoon, it does not
look very probable with this forecast update and thus have forgone
bumping up afternoon highs.

Aside from temps, high clouds will be rolling through the area
associated with ongoing convection in the Plains. A brief period
of mostly clear skies looks likely mid day before fair weather cu
develops and denser cloud cover builds in during the late evening
ahead of our rain chances tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The aforementioned ridge will begin to break down later tonight
into Friday morning as a cold front pushes into area. Southerly
flow ahead of the front will help to advect some Gulf moisture
back into the region and subsequently medium to high (50-80%)
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the
area from the mid/late morning through the evening, before
tapering off from west to east. Behind the front, we enter a more
zonal pattern that will maintain the warm air mass, but also
feature additional shortwaves that will trigger medium chances
(40-60%) additional showers and a few thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday. In between the showers/storms, breaks of sunshine and
southerly flow will keep highs in the low to mid 80s, with lows
bottoming out in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By
Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in
medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the
afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least
the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass
in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will
keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the
remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River
where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise
through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to
support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by
on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in
the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle
of the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the daytime hours before
chances for rain and thunder increase after 06z. Reductions to
MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible within heavier thunderstorms
that will persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25