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000
FXUS64 KHUN 162331
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
631 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Partly sunny skies and a dry forecast has persisted early this
afternoon, as current temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid
80s across the Tennessee Valley. Southerly winds have intensified
this afternoon thanks to the combination of diurnal heating and a
tightening pressure gradient tied to an upper low currently over
northeast NE. This system will be responsible for producing strong
to severe storms across portions of the Midwest today, and will
slowly continue to push east overnight. As the low continues to
occlude well to our north, we will become further displaced from
the better synoptic forcing. With that being said, sfc dewpoints
near 60 degrees and warm overnight temperatures will help keep
convective inhibition at a minimum overnight. SPC has expanded the
Marginal Risk (1 of 5) through all of northern AL and southern
middle TN beginning early tomorrow morning, with the main threats
being marginally severe hail and wind. PoPs increase from west to
east between midnight and 6am, with the highest chances (30-60%)
for showers and storms west of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms (30-60%) in
the area by tomorrow morning, and will continue to monitor the
threat for a few strong to severe storms. High res guidance
generally favors a weakening trend as storms move east away from
the stronger forcing with the cold front and the better
instability lagging behind the main line of storms. Still, a few
of these storms may produce gusty winds and marginally severe
hail. Expect these storms to move south and east of the area by
later in the afternoon, with a dry forecast from tomorrow night
through Thursday afternoon. High temps on Thursday will once again
reach the low to mid 80s with southwest flow becoming breezy at
times.

From here, models diverge a bit regarding the formation of a
second sfc low and when the cold front will make its way through
the area. Have stuck with blended guidance at this time,
increasing rain chances beginning Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning. SPC has also highlighted portions of the local
area in a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) on Thursday afternoon when a low
threat for strong/severe storms will exist. This remains low
confidence given the range in timing solutions, but will keep
monitoring forecast trends in hopes of better consistency. Will
keep low to medium chances (30-60%) for storms in the forecast
through Friday afternoon. Once the front does make it through the
area, cooler temperatures will follow with highs in the mid to
upper 70s and breezy northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The forecast over the weekend is a bit messy with the frontal
boundary shifting into the deep South. Shortwaves within the
basically zonal flow across the southern U.S. will produce
multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms, particularly just to our
south. For our area, rain chances will be "medium" or in the
30-50% range. A stronger shortwave will eventually drop southeast
through the main upper trough position across the north central
and northeast U.S. Sunday into early Monday, sweeping the rain
chances away to the east. This will bring a somewhat dramatic cool
down (at least comparably to the 80s we are seeing now). Highs
Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 60s, then recover to
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday after morning lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions with high cigs slowly lowering to around 10,000
feet is expected through 08Z at both terminals. Included low
possibility of showers between 9Z and 12Z at KMSL and between 12Z
and 15Z at KHSV with a PROB30 group. Then expect persistent -TSRA
to move into the KMSL terminal after 12Z and KHSV terminal after
15Z. A tempo group for TSRA was included as well for both
terminals, when IFR CIGS and VSBYS may occur at times. Expect MVFR
CIGS and light SHRA to continue through 23Z at both terminals
before precipitation ends. VFR conditions with 5000 to 6000 foot
CIGS should return after 23Z to both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KTW