Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000 FXUS64 KHUN 242339 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Ridging extending south of a surface high pressure system over Quebec, continued controlling the weather over the eastern CONUS. Although the surface flow has become ESE (after earlier being light from the NE) had increased to 10-20 mph with stronger gusts. Even with thin, high altitude clouds overspreading the area from the west (somewhat lowering a solar heating potential), early afternoon temperatures have slowly warmed into the mid/60s to near 70. These readings are close to seasonal norms. A potent storm system now forming over the High Plains was producing very strong winds from KS to eastern NM, with some gusts over 70 mph noted in West TX. This system as it moves to the east will also bring stronger winds to this area over the next couple of days. Otherwise, not as cool tonight with lows ranging from the lower 40s our eastern areas (where colder air is still present) to the lower 50s west. Winds from the SE will remain elevated in the 15-25 mph range and gusty. Gusts above 40 mph are possible in the in the higher elevations of the Tennessee Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Windy conditions are expected on Monday as the above mentioned storm system to our west deepens. The synoptic cyclone appears will "bottom out" in the mid 980s mb range (sea-level pressure) over western KS late tonight before slowly filling on Mon. As such, the winds speeds will become high enough for a Wind Advisory, which is already out, effective from 1 PM Mon through early Tue morning. Expect SE winds of 20-30 mph with gusts near 50 mph, especially in the higher terrain and those more exposed locations. Another item to contend with will be high chances of showers and thunderstorms impacting the Valley beginning Mon evening. As the parent low slowly moves to the north, a cold front trailing south of it will near this area. Numerous showers and storms preceding the front will begin impacting the Tennessee Valley Mon evening, with rain chances ramping up from west to east in the evening and overnight. A strong wind field over the area, with usual turning in direction will make for very sheared environment as we go into Mon night. Storm relative helicity values exceed 1000 m/s from some of the models. But lower level buoyancy and CAPE values will fortunately remain on the lower side here before a main line of convection arrives. The line of convection resembling a weak Quasi Linear Convective System per the Convective Allowing Models should remain on a weakening trend as it traverses the area. BUT...although the line overall should be weakening as it moves further east, it could still produce severe weather. Strong to damaging wind gusts are the main threat, with a higher risk more to the west. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western half of the area into a Marginal 1/5 risk for severe weather. Although the system should not feature too much overall instability, it will not fall short far as moisture content. Precipitable water amounts in the late Mon/early Tue time frame sharply ramp up to 1.3-1.5" or 75-90% percentile range this time of year. Thus very heavy rainfall is possible with this system Mon night into Tue morning. Some of the models were hinting that some training of showers which could produce excessive rainfall. Thus a Slight risk for excessive rainfall remains over NW AL. The heaviest rain with this system appears will fall on areas west of I-65. The heaviest showers should end Tue morning. Chances for showers should taper off from west to east during Tue. The cold front trailing from the parent low (by this time over western Great Lakes) should move across the area Tue night, bringing another shot of colder air to the region. Wednesday will feature a return of dry weather. High temperatures on Mon should warm only into the 60s, as clouds increase ahead of the showers. Even with clouds and rain chances Tue, highs should warm into the mid 60s to around 70 before the front passes. A bit cooler for the mid week with highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Once the aforementioned system progresses to the east, surface high pressure will take hold over the southeastern CONUS and persist through the first part of next weekend. No rain is anticipated during this time. High temperatures will be on a warming trend, increasing from the 60s on Thursday to the lower to mid 70s on Saturday. We may even see upper 70s the last day of March! Lows are expected to start out in the mid to upper 30s for Wednesday and Thursday nights, with possible frost late Thursday night. However, expect lows to follow a similar warming trend through the end of March. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue at the MSL/HSV terminals this evening and overnight, featuring a bkn layer of cirrostratus and SE wind of 12G20 knots. Elevated moisture return to the east of an intensifying shortwave trough and related area of sfc low pressure across the central Plains will contribute to development of a lower stratus layer by 14Z that may provide bkn MVFR cigs arnd 2500 ft for much of the day. Although some shower activity (preceding a squall line associated with the storm system to our west) may begin to spread into northwest AL prior to the end of the TAF period, greater chances for SHRA/TSRA will occur after 25/0Z and we will leave the TAFs dry at this point. SE winds will increase to 20G35 knots late tomorrow morning, and although this (by definition) will preclude mentioning LLWS in the TAFs, SSE flow just off the surface will steadily increase throughout the day, and LLWS may ultimately be warranted after 21Z.
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&& .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076- 096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...70/DD

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