Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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304 FXUS64 KHUN 290156 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 856 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM...
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(Tonight) Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 This evening, water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough across the Plains with a line of severe storms along its eastern extent from Arkansas southward into eastern Texas. As these storms push further ahead of the trough axis, a weakening trend is expected as they outrun the better instability and forcing. Closer to home, cirrus clouds from these storms will continue to stream in from the west overnight. With mostly clouds skies in place, a mild night is in store with forecast morning lows only dipping down into the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 As the potent Plains upper trough lifts northeast, shortwaves in the southern stream extension of this mean trough will cross the lower MS valley Monday into Monday night. The surface cold front will be dissipating as this wave moves across, but there is a high chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially Monday night into Tuesday morning. CAPE is low and shear will be low to moderate at most, so not expecting strong or severe storms. Rain amounts of 0.5-0.75 inches are projected, but this is a bit optimistic based on differing models solutions splitting two main rain areas to our north and southwest potentially. Temperatures will remain on the seasonably warm side, with lower 80s Monday and upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. With mid and upper level ridging moving in on Wednesday, temperatures should reach the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Upper ridging will build into the Oh River Valley and northeast along the Atlantic Coast through the second half of the work week, and will keep temperatures on the warm side. Daily highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with very low (10-20%) chances for diurnal showers/storms each afternoon through Thursday. By Friday, an upper low will pivot from the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest, and a cold front will push east, approaching the MS River Valley. As synoptic lift increases ahead of this front, rain and storm chances will increase to around 40-50% during the day on Friday and into Friday night. Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge over the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast, which could stall the sfc front just to our south early Saturday before it lifts back north. This would support additional showers and storms through the weekend, so have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs (40-50%) at this range. Temperatures will cool but only slightly Friday and Saturday, with highs near the low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds remain southerly through the night around 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible after sunrise tomorrow morning. Showers and storms approach from the west by tomorrow evening, but at this time they should remain west of the terminals by the end of the forecast period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...GH