000
FXUS64 KHUN 231644
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1144 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A modest increase in south-southwesterly return flow at the
surface is already underway across northern AL/southern Middle TN,
with this trend expected to continue throughout the day as a
surface high (initially centered across GA/SC) drifts
southeastward, and a weakening northern stream shortwave trough
and surface low track across southern Ontario and the northern
Great Lakes. However, low-level moisture return will be impeded by
the western extension of the ridge to our southeast (into the
north-central Gulf of Mexico), with dewpoints only recovering into
the l-m 40s this afternoon. Although scattered high-clouds will
continue to spread southeastward within a prevailing WNW flow
regime aloft, we anticipate abundant sunshine, with highs ranging
from the u60s (atop the Cumberland Plateau) to the l-m 70s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A weak shortwave will approach the Tennessee Valley tonight, but
given how moisture-starved the air mass is the only "weather
impact" will be an increase in cloud cover briefly late tonight
into early Wednesday morning. The end result of this will be a
much milder night as low temperatures will bottom out about 10
degrees higher than the previous night -- in the low to mid 50s.
Expect more of the same on Wednesday as clouds thin and
temperatures once again return to the low to mid 70s. A more
pronounced shortwave will ripple across the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing some additional cloud cover and
potentially some low chances (20-30%) for light rain showers
during the day on Thursday. This activity will taper off Thursday
night, and high pressure will build back into the area on Friday.
Subsequently, we`ll be in store for mostly sunny conditions with
highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An upper ridge axis will promote continued warm/dry weather this
weekend as highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. Aiding in the warming will be breezy SW winds
that will help to advection a warm and more moist air mass from
the south. Sunday night into Monday a deepening area of low
pressure will shift NE from the Southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes, pushing a cold front into the region sometime
on Monday. Sufficient forcing and instability will be in place to
generate better chances for showers and storms during this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals for at least the
first half of the valid TAF period, with sct Ci and a SSW wind of
12G20 kts that will diminish to arnd 8 kts shortly before sunset.
Mid-level cloud cover will begin to increase late this evening as
a cold front and weakening band of precipitation approach the
region from the NW, with cigs of 5-8 kft expected at both airports
by 6Z. As the front enters the region, some light shower activity
will be possible (mainly in the 10-14Z timeframe), but
probabilities are currently too low to mention in the TAFs. Winds
will veer to NW by 14Z, with bkn MVFR stratus expected in the
wake of the boundary. Although there may be a brief window of
opportunity for development of light BR/FG early this evening,
vsby reductions are not expected to impact the TAF sites.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD