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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KICT 152323
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely tonight in central Kansas.

- Post-frontal strong winds/warmth on Tuesday.

- Chances for strong/severe storms again Thursday morning.

- Much cooler (below normal temperatures) by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Our primary concern continues to be the potential for severe storms
this evening and tonight. There is no appreciable change from the
previous forecast with the main development coming after dark as the
deeper moisture arrives and the LLJ ramps up when large-scale
forcing for ascent increases with the approaching trough. This will
favor our central KS counties, especially west of I-135. The
environment continues to favor supercell storms capable of all
severe hazards (very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes,
perhaps a strong tornado).

As we move into the late evening and overnight hours, an eastward
advancing Pacific front is expected to result in an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage across generally the eastern half of Kansas as
the mid/upper trough lifts negatively tilted across the area. Given
the strong large-scale forcing for ascent and deep layer shear
vectors becoming oriented more parallel to the frontal zone should
support a transition to primarily mixed and/or linear convective
mode, with severe hazards gradually transitioning to damaging winds
and marginal large hail, although an isolated tornado threat may
still exist given the strong low-level shear.

MWM

A few strong/marginally severe storms will still be possible a
few hours after sunrise in eastern Kansas Tuesday morning. Then
another chance for scattered high based showers/storms Tuesday
afternoon supported by cooling aloft and diurnal heating to the
south of the upper low center. This looks to yield 500-1000 j/kg
ml/sfc based skinny cape per NAM/RAP soundings in central Kansas
with small hail potential and steep low level lapse rates/modest
Dcape lending to strong outflow winds. Otherwise, it will be a
warm and windy day nonetheless for the rest of the area behind
the dry-line and secondary cold front in the afternoon/early
evening. A wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday. A fair and
rather benign weather day is expected on Wednesday with modest
westerly flow aloft and light winds with temperatures remaining
above climo. Westerly flow aloft will increase on Wednesday
night to the south of an upper trof moving across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest. The associated strong surface cold front
will move into Kansas during the night and will encounter decent
low level moisture transport toward dawn on Thursday morning
into the boundary as it moves into southern Kansas. Stronger
isentropic lift over the increasing low level baroclinic front
should help promote scattered to numerous showers/storms in the
presence of moderate/strong instability and cloud bearing shear.
While mostly elevated in nature, some of the point soundings
off various short term models suggest some quasi-surface based
storms are possible along the developmental warm front/closer to
the Oklahoma border. So there appears to be at least a slight
risk severe storms with mainly a large hail threat early on
Thursday for portions of south central and southeast Kansas.

Turning much cooler for the end of the week and into the weeded
with temperatures averaging below climo as a large area of low
pressure/trof aloft envelops far southern/eastern Canada and the
northern tier of U.S. Better chances for precip should stay
mainly west and south of the area though will maintain slight
PoPs in some areas Friday through Saturday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms this evening into the
overnight hours.

Storms are expected to develop in the 01-04z time frame
generally west of Highway 281 and will track east through the
evening hours. Highest confidence right now is for KRSL-KGBD to
see storms, in the 04-07z time frame. Confidence is slightly
lower for KHUT-KSLN-KICT so only ran with VCTS for those sites
at this point. Any sites that see storms can expect all severe
weather hazards as they track off to the northeast. Surface low
will track off to the northeast on Tue and will flip winds
around to the southwest and west at all sites with gusts to
40-45 mph likely at most sites by the early afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Very high grassland fire danger is expected on Tuesday, mainly
from midday through the afternoon for areas of central Kansas to
the west of a Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman line. There will
also be a chance for scattered showers in the afternoon for
central Kansas.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED/MWM
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED