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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KICT 201716
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures today with a warm-up to start the
  work week.

- Very high fire danger for Monday.

- Shower/storm chances increasing for end of work week through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently have an upper trough extending from Ontario into the
Western Great Lakes region with another piece of energy over the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends from MT
down through the Central Plains with a cold front down across
the southern Gulf Coast States.

Impressive mid level baroclinic zone and associated
frontogenesis has been resulting in snow across far northwest
KS with some light rain or sprinkles attempting to work east
but are struggling. Not much is expected to change for today
with widespread cloud cover and highs around 10 degrees below
normal. Western KS will continue to have the better precip
chances today with areas west of I-135 possibly getting-in on
some light rain or sprinkles. For tonight, the upper impulse
over the Northern Rockies will track across Nebraska and across
Eastern KS Sun morning. Some patchy frost will be possible early
Sun morning across mainly central KS as the surface high builds
over the area.

By Monday morning, shortwave energy will be moving into the
Tennessee Valley with an upper low sliding across southern
Saskatchewan. This will place the forecast area between a
surface high over the Arklatex region and deepening lee
troughing across eastern CO. This setup will result in strong
southwest winds Mon afternoon with some gusts in the 40-45 mph
range possible. As the upper low tracks across the Northern
Plains Mon night, a cold front will push southeast across the
forecast area on Tue. Current thinking is that while there will
be some rain chances tied to the front for Mon night into Tue,
the more widespread rain chances will be associated with the
upper wave, which will be north and east of our area. The good
news is that the air behind the front will not be extremely
cold and will only knock highs down to around seasonal normals
for Wed.

There is decent model agreement that some weak upper ridging
will pass over the Plains for Wed into Wed evening. With the
surface high shifting east, 850-700mb theta-e advection will
increase across the Southern Plains and may bring some sct
showers and storms on Wed. After this time frame, confidence
drops off significantly, especially with regards to
shower/storm chances. By Thu afternoon, the GFS has a shortwave
impulse about to move out across Western KS. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF, UKMET and Canadian have this same feature back over the
Desert Southwest. Regardless of the model, they all do quickly
lift the upper impulse across the Central Plains while a much
deeper upper trough digs across the Great Basin into the Desert
Southwest for Sat into Sun. So for now will keep shower and
storm chances in starting Thu and will linger into the weekend,
but confidence will remain very low until medium range models
come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A band of light rain with some occasional melting snow flakes
over central Kansas will taper off around mid afternoon with no
impacts. Otherwise minimal aviation concerns expected with mid-
level clouds lingering over the region. North-Northeast winds
will gradually shift to the northwest for late tonight into
Sunday and remain on the light side.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Very high fire danger is likely Monday afternoon.

Strong southwest winds are expected on Monday with gusts by the
afternoon hours in the 40-45 mph range, especially across
central KS. Afternoon RH`s on Mon afternoon are forecast to
generally be around 30%. These conditions will lead to very high
grassland fire danger for location generally along and
especially west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL