Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000 FXUS63 KICT 280739 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Warming trends will lead us through the end of the week with increasing south winds elevating grassland fire danger. - Increasing chances for showers/storms Sunday night through Monday night, some could be strong to severe.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The departing longwave upper trof will give way to rising geopotential heights/ridging aloft translating over the Plains today. Increasing southerly low level flow will usher in milder air with highs climbing a bit above seasonal climo. Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail over the area on Friday into Friday night as an upper trof moves across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The associated weak cold front looks to drop southward across north central Kansas in the afternoon as a surface trof/weak dry-line moves eastward across central Kansas. Modest low level moisture advection will occur on the stronger southerly flow across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. The gradient flow and steeper low level lapse rates will lend to decent momentum transfer of strong winds to the surface which may flirt with advisory criteria east of the Kansas turnpike Friday afternoon. Highs should climb well into the 70s area-wide, though a slightly faster frontal passage could trim highs a bit along/north of I-70. The surface frontal boundary looks to waver across the area through the weekend with slight ridging aloft downstream of the developing upper trof/low settling over southern California. Short term models suggest the front may try and migrate north a bit on Saturday with elevated moisture transport occurring on the nose of a modest low level jet. However capping may be sufficient to limit/mitigate convective chances across a portion of the area. Deeper moisture advection is expected to occur by Sunday night and Monday as a more significant shortwave ejects across the central Plains ahead of the remnant Southwest conus upper low/trof. There is increasing support for organized convection and severe weather potential given the progged instability/shear combo, though details on position of the important synoptic features (fronts/dry-line) will be key to the greatest area of concern be it portions of eastern Kansas or northeast Oklahoma. There is general support for much cooler weather in the wake of this system/front by Tuesday. Darmofal
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Southwest/south winds overnight will turn breezy by this afternoon, gusting to up to 25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Stronger south winds, warmer temperatures and modestly low daytime humidity levels will result in several hours of very high grassland fire danger this afternoon across central Kansas and the Flint Hills. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Friday afternoon across the entire area. Strongest winds (from the south) are expected east of the Kansas turnpike with the lowest humidities further west over central Kansas just behind a surface trof/weak dry-line. So the overlapping wind and humidity values will result in a very high fire danger across the Flint Hills and south central Kansas and a portion of central Kansas east of a Salina to Lyons line. A cold front is also expected to sag into central Kansas along the I-70 corridor late Friday afternoon shifting winds from southwest to northwest. A frontal boundary will waver from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma over the weekend with modest winds and higher daytime humidity levels muting fire danger. Increasing chances for wetting rains from showers and thunderstorms will arrive across much of the area (best chances east of the turnpike) Sunday night through Monday night. KED
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&& .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...KMB FIRE WEATHER...KED

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