Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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000
FXUS63 KICT 280739
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
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- Warming trends will lead us through the end of the week with
increasing south winds elevating grassland fire danger.
- Increasing chances for showers/storms Sunday night through
Monday night, some could be strong to severe.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The departing longwave upper trof will give way to rising
geopotential heights/ridging aloft translating over the Plains
today. Increasing southerly low level flow will usher in milder
air with highs climbing a bit above seasonal climo. Modest
westerly flow aloft will prevail over the area on Friday into
Friday night as an upper trof moves across the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest. The associated weak cold front looks to
drop southward across north central Kansas in the afternoon as
a surface trof/weak dry-line moves eastward across central
Kansas. Modest low level moisture advection will occur on the
stronger southerly flow across the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas. The gradient flow and steeper low level lapse rates will
lend to decent momentum transfer of strong winds to the surface
which may flirt with advisory criteria east of the Kansas
turnpike Friday afternoon. Highs should climb well into the 70s
area-wide, though a slightly faster frontal passage could trim
highs a bit along/north of I-70.
The surface frontal boundary looks to waver across the area
through the weekend with slight ridging aloft downstream of the
developing upper trof/low settling over southern California.
Short term models suggest the front may try and migrate north a
bit on Saturday with elevated moisture transport occurring on
the nose of a modest low level jet. However capping may be
sufficient to limit/mitigate convective chances across a portion
of the area. Deeper moisture advection is expected to occur by
Sunday night and Monday as a more significant shortwave ejects
across the central Plains ahead of the remnant Southwest conus
upper low/trof. There is increasing support for organized
convection and severe weather potential given the progged
instability/shear combo, though details on position of the
important synoptic features (fronts/dry-line) will be key to the
greatest area of concern be it portions of eastern Kansas or
northeast Oklahoma. There is general support for much cooler
weather in the wake of this system/front by Tuesday.
Darmofal-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.
Southwest/south winds overnight will turn breezy by this
afternoon, gusting to up to 25kts.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Stronger south winds, warmer temperatures and modestly low
daytime humidity levels will result in several hours of very
high grassland fire danger this afternoon across central Kansas
and the Flint Hills. Even warmer temperatures are expected on
Friday afternoon across the entire area. Strongest winds (from
the south) are expected east of the Kansas turnpike with the
lowest humidities further west over central Kansas just behind a
surface trof/weak dry-line. So the overlapping wind and
humidity values will result in a very high fire danger across
the Flint Hills and south central Kansas and a portion of
central Kansas east of a Salina to Lyons line. A cold front is
also expected to sag into central Kansas along the I-70 corridor
late Friday afternoon shifting winds from southwest to
northwest. A frontal boundary will waver from southern Kansas
into northern Oklahoma over the weekend with modest winds and
higher daytime humidity levels muting fire danger. Increasing
chances for wetting rains from showers and thunderstorms will
arrive across much of the area (best chances east of the
turnpike) Sunday night through Monday night.
KED-- End Changed Discussion --
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.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
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DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED