000
FXUS63 KICT 182322
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stepping back a month with a March-like feel thru the weekend
  with only spotty light rain chances.

- Warming trend closer to late April climo early next week.

- Better Spring-like convective chances by Day 7/Thursday and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend with temperatures well below climo. Low level cold
advection will continue tonight as surface ridge builds into the
area. Likewise, north winds will diminish as well with advisory
probably able to be cancelled at 4 pm expiration this afternoon.
While some patchy frost is possible early Friday morning, there
will probably be enough wind/mixing in southern Kansas and some
increase in clouds in central Kansas to stave off widespread
need for an advisory. Weak perturbations moving through the
westerly flow aloft on Friday into Saturday will ripple along
the mid-level baroclinic zone which will sag slowly southward
across the central Plains. While the low levels will remain
relatively dry, some downward saturation with lift from a second
impulse late Friday night into Saturday associated with a weak
secondary low level/surface cold front may allow for some
scattered light rain across parts of the area. Some moderation
in temperatures with more sunshine is expected on Sunday.

Temperatures look to warm closer to and slightly above climo
through early next week. The medium range shows an upper trof
dropping southeastward from far southern B.C./Alberta across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest with the associated surface cold
front moving thru Kansas Monday night/Tuesday. Modest moisture
return supports similar PoP chances. There may be better
chances for more organized precip/convection toward the end of
next week. However, timing details/chances seem to hinge on the
potential phasing of a southern stream upper low/trof over the
eastern Pacific. The GFS is quicker to do so, with said trof
affecting the central Plains/Kansas by Thursday. Even so, the
GFS/ECMWF both suggest a more active pattern with a reloading
western conus upper low/trof scenario ejecting periodic
shortwaves into the Plains beyond Day 7.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR conditions will be moving out of the region tonight with
winds diminishing during the night. KCNU will be the last
terminal to clear to VFR. Winds will remain lighter through the
remainder of the TAF period with some VFR CIGs possible during
the day tomorrow as well. Otherwise, no significant aviation
weather impacts are expected.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM